Churchill Downs could be 38% undervalued according to a Simply Wall St analysis, which estimates fair value at $134.75 per share versus a last close of $83.47. The company and The New York Racing Association recently outlined the new Thoroughbred Championship Series, a six-race, season-long competition for three-year-old Thoroughbreds starting in 2027. The bullish narrative is driven by expansion of high-margin Historical Racing Machine properties in Kentucky and Virginia, along with new projects in New Hampshire and potential new markets, which are expected to increase exposure to experiential gaming and drive recurring revenue and margin growth. Churchill Downs has also announced new capital projects at its flagship racetrack and plans to sell nine regional casinos, yet the stock has declined 25.44% year to date and posted a one-year total shareholder return of negative 18.99%. Key risks include regulatory disputes such as the HISA fee fight and any shift in consumer interest away from horse racing.
Churchill Downs IncorporatedSimply Wall St analysis estimates 38% undervaluation with fair value $134.75 vs $83.47 close.