DBS keeps Neutral weighting on energy sector, highlights 8 top picks on refining and petrochemical margin recovery

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Summary · why it matters

DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis that it is maintaining its Neutral investment weighting on energy and petrochemical stocks, noting that the five business groups, namely upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power plants, and oil retail, each have different drivers. It highlighted eight top picks. The upstream group, which includes PTTEP and PTT, faces short-term pressure from lower oil prices, with Dubai crude falling 11.84 US dollars to 113.06 US dollars per barrel, though still well above the 2025 average of about 70 US dollars per barrel. The top pick in this group is PTTEP. The refining group, which includes BCP, IRPC, PTTGC, SPRC, and TOP, is supported by a recovery in Singapore refining margins of 3.17 US dollars to minus 1.44 US dollars per barrel. The top picks are BCP and SPRC. The petrochemical group, which includes IRPC, IVL, PTTGC, SCC, and TOP, benefits from a broad increase in price spreads after naphtha prices fell 33 US dollars per ton. The top picks are PTTGC and SCC. The power plant group, which includes BGRIM, GPSC, and GULF, has improved in the short term on weaker JKM gas prices, down 1.80 US dollars to about 26 US dollars per million British thermal units. The top picks are GULF and GPSC. The oil retail group, which includes OR and PTG, benefits from a 0.71 baht increase in diesel marketing margins to 2.00 baht per liter after pump retail prices were raised on September 24, 2026. The top pick is PTG.

Impact on assets 14

Energy Transition & Power Demand± Mixed · 6 stocks
Global Power Synergy PCL
GPSC
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Named a top pick in the power plant group, benefiting from weaker JKM gas prices (down $1.80 to ~$26/MMBtu).

PTT Public Company Limited
PTT
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

PTT is in the upstream group facing short-term pressure from lower oil prices, with Dubai crude falling $11.84 to $113.06/bbl.

Thai Oil Public Company Limited
TOP
± MixedSupplyrelevance

Listed in both refining and petrochemical groups but not among DBS's top picks; refining margin recovery is offset by lower oil prices.

Energy± Mixed · 3 stocks
IRPC Public Company Limited
IRPC
± MixedPricingrelevance

Listed in both the refining and petrochemical groups, which benefit from margin recovery and lower naphtha prices, but IRPC was not among the top picks.

Electrification & Mobility▲ · 2 stocks
PTG Energy PCL
PTG
▲ PositivePricingrelevance

PTG is the top pick in oil retail, benefiting from the 0.71 baht increase in diesel marketing margins to 2.00 baht/liter.

Materials▲ · 1 stocks
Climate Adaptation & Water▲ · 1 stocks
Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲ · 1 stocks
Indorama Ventures PCL
IVL
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Petrochemical group including IVL benefits from wider price spreads after naphtha feedstock prices fell $33/ton.

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