Dollar buying may strengthen if US employment proves resilient — key economic indicators to watch this week

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Among the major economic indicators released from August 3 to 7, the ADP employment report, a leading indicator for US nonfarm payrolls, and the ISM non-manufacturing index are expected to set the direction for the dollar. New Zealand's April–June quarter employment report, due on the 5th, is forecast to show a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in employment and an unemployment rate of 5.3%. If the labor market holds firm, buying of the New Zealand dollar could intensify. The US ADP employment report for July, also on the 5th, is expected to show a gain of 75,000, slowing from the previous month. A weak result could trigger dollar selling on expectations of earlier rate cuts, while a solid reading would support dollar buying. Canada's July employment report, due on the 7th, is forecast to show a gain of 15,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.5%. As it is released simultaneously with the US employment report, the reaction in the US dollar–Canadian dollar pair could be complex.

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