El Niño Slashes India's Sugar Output, Risking 2-3 Million Tonne Imports as Prices Surge 30%

J.P. Morgan upgraded Corteva to Overweight from Neutral on Tuesday, arguing that the agricultural-chemicals company left behind after the spinoff of its seed business is undervalued and has a stronger financial profile than its share price suggests. Lead analyst Jeffrey J. Zekauskas set a December 2027 price target of $19, compared with Corteva's Oct. 5 closing price of $12.39, implying upside of about 53%; the sharp reduction from J.P. Morgan's previous $83 target reflects the separation of Corteva's seed business into Vylor rather than a comparable collapse in the bank's assessment of the underlying company. The new Corteva consists of the former company's crop-chemicals operations, which J.P. Morgan estimates has a gross margin of about 38%, ebitda margins of 16.5% to 17% and negligible net debt, with the shares trading at roughly 5.7 times estimated 2027 ebitda, about one turn below rival FMC despite FMC carrying substantially more leverage. Zekauskas estimates a high-quality crop-chemicals business could ordinarily warrant about 10 times 2027 ebitda, equivalent to roughly $21 a share before environmental liabilities, but J.P. Morgan uses a more conservative 9-times multiple to reach its $19 target, accounting for uncertainty over PFAS and PFOA liabilities inherited from the former DuPont structure; it models a conservative scenario in which combined liabilities for DuPont, Chemours and Corteva reach $8 billion, twice the existing $4 billion framework, putting Corteva's responsibility at about $1.3 billion, or roughly $2 a share. J.P. Morgan forecasts Corteva revenue rising from $7.87 billion in 2026 to $8.10 billion in 2027, adjusted ebitda increasing from $1.28 billion to $1.37 billion, adjusted EPS climbing 31.6% to 85 cents in 2027 and free cash flow to the firm jumping to $542 million from an estimated $63 million this year, with potential catalysts including $300 million in run-rate savings targeted from 2024 through 2027 and $500 million by 2029, plus a recovery in grain prices.

FMC Corporation has submitted a regulatory dossier for rimisoxafen to Brazilian authorities, the second global regulatory submission for the herbicide after its filing with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in July 2026. Brazil is one of the world's largest soybean and corn producers, with more than 50 million hectares of soybeans and more than 20 million hectares of corn under cultivation, where growers are increasingly battling resistant broadleaf weeds including Amaranthus hybridus and Amaranthus palmeri. The Herbicide Resistance Action Committee classified rimisoxafen under Groups 12 and 32, and as the first dual mode of action herbicide its field testing has shown consistent activity against small-seeded broadleaf weeds, including those resistant to other herbicides. Rimisoxafen is the third novel herbicide active ingredient FMC has advanced to regulatory submission in Brazil, following Isoflex and Dodhylex, though it remains subject to regulatory review and approval and is not currently registered for sale or use in Brazil or any other country. FMC shares have slumped 72.6% in the past year compared with the industry's 10% growth in the same period.

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking announced on the 25th that it will expand lending for corporate spending on disaster prevention and climate change measures. As natural disasters caused by climate change, such as heavy rain and floods, increase, the bank aims to support investment in flood-proofing buildings, installing emergency power sources, river improvement, cooling equipment, and developing crops suited to climate change. The bank became the first Japanese financial institution to obtain an opinion from the UK-based nonprofit Climate Bonds Initiative, which promotes such investment, stating that its sustainable finance framework conforms to international standards. This makes it easier for companies to show investors that they are working on disaster prevention and climate change measures if they receive loans through the bank's framework. It also signed a memorandum with the Climate Bonds Initiative together with SMBC Nikko Securities to share knowledge on climate-related standards and evaluation methods and expand the supply of funds to the disaster prevention field. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group aims to handle 50 trillion yen in sustainable finance by fiscal 2029.

Vylor, the advanced seed and genetics company spinning off from Corteva on October 1, 2026, and Belgium-based Rainbow Crops, a spin-off from VIB, announced a collaboration to develop new corn traits using artificial intelligence and multiplex gene editing. Under the partnership, both companies will use Rainbow Crops' AI-supported Trait Foundry technology to accelerate development of corn hybrids more resilient to extreme weather such as heat, drought and floods, combining the platform with Vylor's gene editing expertise. Mat Muller, who will lead Vylor Edge, Vylor's investment platform, said the AI-enabled multiplex gene editing capabilities will allow hundreds of gene edits simultaneously, with performance validated in phenotyping facilities and field trials. Giacomo Bastianelli, CEO and co-founder of Rainbow Crops, said early corn work has been an important proof point for the Trait Foundry platform. The collaboration follows the European Parliament's passage on 17 June 2026 of legislation allowing gene-edited plants to be imported and cultivated across the European Union, and comes after Corteva, through its Corteva Catalyst investment platform, participated in Rainbow Crops' recently closed €9.7 million seed financing round, an investment that will become part of the Vylor Edge portfolio upon the separation.