Finansia expects government measures to support retail in 4Q26, picks BJC and COM7 as top stocks

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Summary · why it matters

Finansia Syrus Securities stated that government economic stimulus measures are expected to remain a supporting factor in 4Q26, with the Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 scheme expected to be extended during October to November 2026. It estimates additional government spending of around 35 to 71 billion baht. Meanwhile, stricter credit term criteria for SMEs are expected to have limited impact, since the proportion of sales from SME products is low and current credit terms are mostly already within the 30 to 45 day range. The Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 measure is expected to support the continued recovery of same-store sales in the second half of 2026, driven by improving same-store sales in the consumer staple group and a positive effect from the low base in the second half of 2025 following the Thai-Cambodian clashes. In the third quarter of 2026, DOHOME and COM7 are expected to lead the group's normal profit growth at around 35 to 45 percent year on year, followed by CRC and BJC at around 15 to 20 percent year on year, while CPAXT is expected to remain a laggard due to weak same-store sales at Lotus. For the second half of 2026, the group's normal profit is expected to grow by an average of around 9.6 percent year on year, close to the momentum in the first half of 2026, and the brokerage estimates there is still upside of around 2 to 3 percent to group profits. The stocks with more notable upside than the group are COM7, SYNEX, GLOBAL and DOHOME. The research team maintains a Neutral investment weighting for the group, selecting BJC with a Buy rating and a target price of 19.5 baht, and COM7 with a Buy rating and a target price of 35 baht, as top picks. It also likes CPALL with a Buy rating and a target price of 63 baht on a wider valuation discount, and MRDIYT with a Hold rating and a target price of 10.4 baht, which is starting to look interesting.

Impact on assets 9

Consumer Discretionary▲ · 5 stocks
Com7 PCL
COM7
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Named top pick with Buy rating and 35 baht target price, expected to lead group profit growth at 35-45% YoY in 3Q26.

Dohome Public Company Limited
DOHOME
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

DOHOME expected to lead the group's normal profit growth at ~35-45% YoY in 3Q26 and is among stocks with notable upside, aided by Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 stimulus supporting same-store sales.

Consumer Staples± Mixed · 2 stocks
Berli Jucker PCL
BJC
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Selected as a top pick with a Buy rating and 19.5 baht target price, and expected 15-20% YoY profit growth in 3Q26.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
Information Technology▲ · 1 stocks
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