Gold is encountering its first genuine competitor in years as a renewed appetite for bonds challenges its recent rally. Goldman Sachs has cut its year-end gold target to $4,900 from $5,400, while UBS and JPMorgan remain bullish at $6,200 and $6,300 respectively. The T-bond-to-gold ratio, proxied by long-duration Treasuries ETFs versus gold-focused counterparts, has broken out of a four-year falling wedge, signaling a potential rotation from precious metals back into duration. Bearish gold hedging has also become unusually crowded, with the six-month put-call skew on GLD jumping to 1.03, roughly 2.6 standard deviations above its 10-year average. The next move for gold is expected to be macro-driven, hinging on real yields and upcoming inflation data.
Goldman Sachs Group IncGoldman Sachs cut its gold price target, but the article is about gold, not GS's own business.
UBS Group AG
JPMorgan Chase & CoGold faces competition from bonds; Goldman cut its gold target; bearish hedging is elevated; rotation from gold to bonds.