The U.S. stock market faces a plausible crash risk under President Trump as interest rate increases, elevated bond yields, and new tariffs converge. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have historically suffered average peak-to-trough declines of 10% and 15% in the three months after the Federal Reserve begins raising rates, and the Fed is expected to hike its benchmark rate as soon as July or December. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.18% in May, its highest since July 2007, a level that preceded 20% declines in both indexes within a year. Additionally, the U.S. Trade Representative proposed new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 countries, with hearings set for July 7, and economists warn broad-based tariffs could further hurt growth.
Intel CorporationRising interest rates and bond yields historically lead to broad market declines, affecting Intel as a cyclical stock.
NVIDIA CorporationRising interest rates and bond yields historically lead to broad market declines, affecting NVIDIA as a growth stock.