Indian Shares Set for Sluggish Open Amid Middle East Tensions and Fed Uncertainty

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Indian shares are expected to open lower on Thursday as investors react to escalating Middle East tensions and concerns over the future path of U.S. monetary policy. Brent crude futures fell over 1 percent to $87.20 a barrel in Asian trade after surging 7.9 percent in the previous U.S. session, while WTI crude futures dropped 1 percent to $83.58 following a 6.6 percent overnight rally. The United States carried out fresh strikes on Iran, intensifying a five-month-old conflict that is spreading across the region, after a drone hit a U.S.-owned gas storage tanker in Egypt and Iran fired missiles targeting U.S. troops in Jordan. On Wednesday, India's benchmark Sensex and Nifty indexes each jumped over 1 percent, buoyed by data showing industrial production grew 7.3 percent in June, the fastest pace in nearly two years, and strong gains in IT stocks for a second day. The rupee settled 16 paise higher at 95.66 against the dollar, extending its winning streak to a fourth session on fresh FII inflows, while RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the rupee is not overvalued and may even be undervalued. Foreign investors net bought shares worth Rs 2,982 crore and domestic institutional investors net bought Rs 998 crore, according to provisional exchange data. Asian markets were mixed this morning amid bargain hunting in oversold technology leaders, with Microsoft posting strong earnings driven by Azure growth and AI adoption, and Samsung forecasting robust AI chip demand, while Meta Platforms issued a weaker-than-expected revenue forecast. U.S. stocks tumbled overnight as long-term Treasury yields surged, with the 30-year yield hitting its highest since 2007, after the Fed held rates steady in a rare 9-3 split vote that highlighted internal divisions, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pledged to bring inflation down but offered little on the policy outlook. The Dow slumped 2.2 percent in its worst session since April 2025, the S&P 500 shed 1.5 percent to a more-than-one-month low, and the Nasdaq Composite gave up 1.7 percent to a three-month closing low as semiconductor shares extended losses on valuation concerns and signs of increasing Chinese competition. European stocks closed mostly lower, with the pan-European STOXX 600 slipping 0.3 percent, while the U.K.'s FTSE 100 rose 0.3 percent, the German DAX finished marginally lower, and France's CAC 40 dipped 0.6 percent.

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