InnovestX keeps Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2% as floods shave 21 billion baht off the economy
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InnovestX Securities estimates that flooding will cause about 21 billion baht in damage to Thailand's economy in 2026, with the heaviest hit in the third quarter at roughly 19.1 billion baht. As a result, it has cut its third-quarter 2026 GDP forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%. Dr. Piyasak Manasant, chief economic researcher at InnovestX Securities, said the damage will ease toward the end of the year, with the fourth quarter expected to see about 1.8 billion baht in losses. Support will also come from Phase 2 of the Thai Help Thai Plus stimulus program, which has a budget ceiling of no more than 42.69 billion baht and is expected to generate about 15.6 billion baht in economic activity. That has led the firm to raise its fourth-quarter 2026 GDP forecast from 1.1% to 1.4%. Netting these out, the net impact on the economy is expected to be about 5.3 billion baht, not enough to change the full-year forecast, so it still expects Thailand's GDP to expand 2.0% in 2026. On tourism, the floods may reduce foreign tourist arrivals in October by about 160,000, but the firm keeps its 2026 foreign tourist forecast at 33 million. For 2027, it expects GDP growth of 2.0%.