InnovestX Recommends Buy on Dip with 3 Themes to Navigate Flooding, Expects Only 21 Billion Baht Hit to 2026 GDP

Thunhoon··TH·Read original
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Summary · why it matters

Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.

Impact on assets 10

Consumer Discretionary▲ · 5 stocks
Health Care▲ · 1 stocks
Aging Population▲ · 1 stocks
Consumer Staples▲ · 1 stocks
Berli Jucker PCL
BJC
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

InnovestX names BJC among Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays to accumulate on the flooding dip.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
Industrials▲ · 1 stocks

Off-coverage companies 1

InnovestX Securities Company LimitedPrivate± Mixed
relevance

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