JPMorgan Chase & Co expects the Bank of Thailand to raise its policy rate three times in 2027, by 0.25% each time, starting in the first quarter of the year, which would push the policy rate up from its current level of 1% to 1.75% by the end of 2027. That forecast runs counter to analysts at other financial institutions, who expect the Bank of Thailand to hold the rate at 1% through 2027 to support a Thai economy struggling to expand by more than 2%. JPMorgan continues to expect Thailand's economy to grow 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027, above the Bank of Thailand's estimates of 2.3% and 1.8% respectively. It also nudged up its forecast for Thailand's headline inflation slightly to 2% for 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, citing higher oil costs and broad-based price pressures. JPMorgan expects Thai inflation to breach the Bank of Thailand's 1% to 3% target range this month and to accelerate to around 4% in the first quarter of 2027.
JPMorgan Chase & CoJPMorgan's contrarian BoT rate-hike forecast is its own research call, not a company-specific financial event.
JPMorgan expects the Bank of Thailand to hike rates three times in 2027, which would strengthen the baht.
