Prediction market traders on Kalshi now believe inflation has peaked, with only a 28% chance that headline inflation this year climbs above 4.2%, the annual rate of increase in the Consumer Price Index in May. The outlook has eased due to falling energy prices, the main driver of inflation, after U.S. crude oil prices dropped below $70 per barrel for the first time since the U.S.-Iran war began and average national gasoline prices fell to $3.84 from a peak above $4.50. Energy prices accounted for 60% of the CPI's month-over-month increase in May, but the decline in gas prices is leading Kalshi traders to expect the June CPI to show a 0.2% decrease from May, in line with Wall Street consensus estimates. The next CPI report is due for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 14.
Average national gasoline prices fell to $3.84 from a peak above $4.50, reflecting lower demand or increased supply, negatively impacting RBOB gasoline futures.
Falling energy prices, with U.S. crude oil dropping below $70/barrel, indicate lower demand or increased supply, negatively impacting WTI futures.