Kasikorn Securities Expects SET to Rebound on Weaker-Than-Expected US Jobs Data, Hopes for Fed Rate Pause
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Wichit Arayapisit, Senior Director of the Securities Analysis Department at Kasikorn Securities, assesses that the SET Index has a chance to recover this morning, driven by easing external factors, especially US labor data that came in below market expectations. US non-farm payrolls rose by only 29,000, about 90,000 below market forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, higher than expected, reflecting a US labor market that is starting to slow. This situation helps ease concerns over inflationary pressure and reduces the chance that the US central bank will raise interest rates at its next meeting to about 22%. As for recent foreign capital flows, foreign investors have been net sellers of Thai stocks for about nine consecutive days, with a combined value of roughly 35 billion baht, partly due to concerns over flooding in the country. However, Kasikorn Securities views that the market has already absorbed these negative factors to a considerable extent and expects foreign selling to trend lower. It estimates today's SET Index trading range at support of 1,560 points and resistance of 1,585 points.