Key Events This Week: US CPI and PPI, ECB Meeting, Republican Convention Speeches

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This week, the US Treasury will expand its long-term bond buybacks from the 9th through November 4th, and President Trump and Vice President Vance will address the Republican National Convention ahead of the midterm elections. Markets are focused on the August US CPI and PPI, which are crucial for the September FOMC policy decision. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.40% month-over-month due to higher gasoline prices, while core CPI is forecast to rise 2.4% year-over-year, the slowest pace since 2021. August PPI is expected to accelerate due to rising energy prices. Due to changes in the PCE calculation methodology, portfolio management fees will no longer reflect PPI, but new PPI components will be reflected in software and legal services. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates at its regular governing council meeting, with attention on President Lagarde's press conference. The yen is expected to remain firm on expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike and caution over intervention to correct yen weakness.

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