Krungsri maintains buy rating on AP with target price of 10.10 baht

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Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited maintains a buy recommendation on AP Thailand Public Company Limited with a 2026 target price of 10.10 baht, after the company reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1.06 billion baht, up 6% from the same period last year and up 18% from the previous quarter. The results were close to the research team's and market estimates. Profit growth was supported by higher revenue both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, as well as an improved gross margin to 30.9% from 30.7% a year earlier and 29.6% in the first quarter, thanks to a higher proportion of transfers of new high-margin projects. Ownership transfers in the second quarter of 2026 rose 8% from a year earlier and 13% from the previous quarter despite a high base, with growth in both low-rise projects and condominiums, in line with high presales during the same period. The rising share of new projects helped lift the gross margin. First-half 2026 net profit was 1.97 billion baht, up 5% from a year earlier, accounting for 43% of the full-year 2026 profit estimate of 4.5 billion baht. The research team maintains its estimate and expects full-year profit to grow 5% from a year earlier on higher ownership transfers. For the third quarter of 2026, the research team expects net profit to be stable year-on-year but higher quarter-on-quarter, supported by the start of transfers of new condominiums and additional launches of new low-rise projects, which will support revenue and profit in the second half of the year. Krungsri also expects AP to maintain a 2026 gross margin of around 31.0%, above the property sector average, reflecting better pricing competitiveness than peers. The firm also sees advantages from economies of scale given the company's large business size. Although construction costs remain a short-term pressure, the research team believes AP still has above-sector growth potential over the medium to long term from maintaining a high and steadily rising market share, and expects the company to remain the market leader. On valuation, Krungsri views the stock as not expensive, trading at a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of only 5.7 times, making it still attractive for investment, and keeps AP as one of its top picks in the property sector.

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