Krungsri Securities: Thai stocks to fluctuate above 1,600 points, watch US-China leaders

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Summary · why it matters

Krungsri Securities said the Thai stock market between 21 and 24 September 2026 moved above the 1,600-point level, supported by positive expectations that the US leader will meet the Chinese leader on 24-25 September, which boosts the prospect of further trade easing. Meanwhile, the electronics group gained positive momentum from AI after President Trump confirmed that the US will continue developing AI despite safety concerns, together with a boost from META's new AI that is helping accelerate demand. The refinery and petrochemical group, such as TOP, SPRC and PTTGC, rose on news that the US is preparing to ban or halt diesel exports, which if implemented would tighten diesel supply in the market and push refining margins higher. The banking group, such as KBANK and BBL, also rose on positive sentiment, supported by news that Fitch Ratings raised its outlook on Thailand's creditworthiness to Stable while keeping the credit rating at BBB+. The groups that fell more sharply than others included retail, such as CRC and CPALL, which faced negative sentiment from the Cabinet resolution extending the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measure, and exporters such as CPF, whose share price fell in line with Chinese hog prices, which dropped 1.8% week-on-week to RMB 10.64 per kg, or 53.00 baht per kg, from a cost of RMB 13.50 per kg, because of oversupply. Meanwhile, Thai hog prices were flat week-on-week at 75.50 baht per kg, against a cost of 60.00 baht per kg. Market earnings for 2026F stood at 110.9 baht, up slightly week-on-week, with the groups whose estimates were revised up being petrochemicals and packaging, while the groups revised down were agriculture and property. Last week, capital flowed out of Asia excluding Japan by a total of 1.661 billion dollars, with Thailand seeing an outflow of 95 million dollars, split into net stock sales of 107.5 million dollars and net bond buying of 12 million dollars. The baht was flat at 33.3 baht.

Impact on assets 9

Digital Finance & Tokenization± Mixed · 2 stocks
Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

BBL rose on positive sentiment after Fitch raised Thailand's credit outlook to Stable while affirming BBB+.

Materials▲ · 1 stocks
Energy▲ · 1 stocks
Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd
SPRC
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

SPRC rose on the potential US diesel export ban, which would tighten diesel supply and push refining margins higher.

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 1 stocks
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
TOP
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

TOP rose on the news that the US is preparing to ban or halt diesel exports, tightening supply and boosting refining margins.

Consumer Staples▼ · 1 stocks
Consumer Discretionary▼ · 1 stocks
Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Spatial Computing / AR/VR▲ · 1 stocks
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