KS Expects Thai Stocks to Swing in 1550-1620 Range This Week, Recommends TOP and BCH

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Summary · why it matters

Kasikorn Securities assesses that the Thai stock market index will trade in a range of 1550-1620 points this week. Domestically, the key factor to watch remains flooding, after the government began gradually releasing water from the Chao Phraya Dam; if there is no additional heavy rain, the impact may not be significant. Externally, attention should be on the Middle East situation, which could escalate again, serving as a catalyst for crude oil prices and inflation. Meanwhile, US bond yields have eased slightly on hopes that the US will not rush to raise interest rates in October, though yields remain elevated. For investment strategy this week, the recommendation is to accumulate stocks on dips that are expected to show strong earnings trends and have supporting stories. The top picks for the week are TOP and BCH. TOP is given a base price of 75.20 baht, supported by refining margins benefiting from the Middle East situation and China and the US announcing a ban on diesel exports in October. Its third-quarter 2026 earnings outlook remains good on high refining margins and expected stock gains; the buy recommendation is maintained. BCH is given a base price of 12.50 baht, based on a stronger third-quarter 2026 outlook as Thai patient volumes recover, SSO revenue improves, and foreign patients, especially from the Middle East and CLMV, grow. The target price is based on DCF at a WACC of 8.2%, offering a dividend yield of around 4-5% in 2026-27; the buy recommendation is also maintained.

Impact on assets 2

Health Care▲ · 1 stocks
Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 1 stocks
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
TOP
▲ PositivePricingrelevance

TOP is a top pick supported by refining margins benefiting from the Middle East situation and China/US diesel export bans, with good Q3 2026 earnings on high refining margins.

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