KSS raises refinery group profit forecast by 29%, names TOP as top pick with 83 baht target

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Summary · why it matters

Krungsri Securities, or KSS, released an analysis of the refinery sector, maintaining a positive view and raising its normal profit estimates for the group in 2026 and 2027 by 8% and 29% respectively, along with target price increases of 6-19%. The main supporting factor comes from the prolonged and widening war situation in the Middle East, which has cut Saudi Arabia's crude oil production capacity to 6.3 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, ramping up production and refilling global oil inventories is expected to take at least six months, creating a shortage of refined products, especially middle distillates, whose price spread is estimated at 44-65 US dollars per barrel, two to three times above normal levels, and is expected to persist through the first half of 2027. For its top pick in the sector, KSS chose Thai Oil, or TOP, with a 2027 target price of 83.00 baht, based on expected normal profit growth averaging 14% per year from 2026 to 2028, the strongest in the group. It also maintained a buy rating on Star Petroleum Refining, or SPRC, raising its 2027 target price to 15.30 baht from 13.50 baht, and maintained a buy rating on Bangchak Corporation, or BCP, raising its 2027 target price to 68.00 baht from 62.00 baht.

Impact on assets 4

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 2 stocks
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
TOP
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

KSS named Thai Oil its top pick with an 83.00 baht 2027 target price, citing strongest normal profit growth of 14% per year from 2026-2028.

Energy▲ · 1 stocks
Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd
SPRC
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

KSS maintained buy rating and raised SPRC's 2027 target price to 15.30 baht from 13.50 baht on higher refinery group profit estimates.

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
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