Saudi Arabia

Oil prices remain in focus as the war in Iran has widened into a proxy fight between the Saudi-backed Yemen government and the Iran-backed Houthis, with barely any oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, though WTO spot oil prices sit at $90 per barrel and Brent crude at $102 per barrel. Trading opens a breather week between last week's jobs and PCE inflation reports and next week's unofficial start of Q3 earnings season, with pre-market futures turning lower, spot oil relatively muted at sustained higher levels, and bond yields flattish but elevated. September S&P Services PMI and ISM Services are due after the opening bell, with ISM expected to dip slightly to 55 from 55.4, both indexes still well above the 50 growth line. This week also brings August Consumer Credit on Wednesday ahead of the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Survey for October on Friday, and Tuesday's U.S. Trade Balance ahead of August Monthly Wholesale Trade numbers on Thursday. PepsiCo reports Thursday morning with earnings growth of 0.00% year over year and revenue growth of +3.94%, while Delta Air Lines reports Friday with projected earnings growth of +14.65% and revenue growth of +6.15%; both stocks currently sit at sell-levels on the Zacks Rank.

Iran is reviewing U.S. comments on its proposal to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi said on Sunday, October 4. Saudi Arabia, the Middle East's largest crude oil exporter, announced it will cut prices for November-loading crude for Asian customers, an unexpected move, while raising prices for customers in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara confirmed on October 5 that Japan has no plans to release additional crude oil from its national reserves, as it has already released supply into the market, even though the G7 countries reached an agreement on Friday, October 2, to release a total of 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves. In Japan itself, authorities plan to amend economic security legislation to require companies and organizations holding big data to notify the government before transferring or disclosing sensitive personal information to third parties. Daiwa Securities Group disclosed on October 5 that data on approximately 110,000 customers of its securities brokerage subsidiary, including non-personal information, may have leaked after a server managed by a subcontractor was accessed without authorization. Also on the same day, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivered a policy speech to parliament, pledging to cut the consumption tax on food products without issuing new bonds in order to reassure the markets. In addition, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation announced the arrest of a California woman at Los Angeles International Airport on Sunday, October 4, charging her with acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign government after she was found surveilling and following the son of Taiwan's president on the orders of Chinese government officials. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the creation of the Super Intelligence Force, a new federal task force to coordinate government artificial intelligence operations. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced early elections on November 29, acknowledging his government's mistakes after facing heavy pressure from public protests over the housing crisis across the country, and after parliament rejected the emergency decree aimed at addressing the crisis.

Saudi Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, announced an official selling price, or OSP, cut for its Arab Light crude for November delivery to Asian customers of $3 per barrel, bringing it to $5 per barrel below the average of Oman and Dubai crude prices. That is the largest cut since June 2020 and runs counter to analysts' expectations of a $3 per barrel increase. The company also cut prices for Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude for Asia by as much as $5 per barrel, while raising prices for all grades for customers in northwest Europe by another $3 per barrel after resuming exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Prices for US customers were left unchanged. On production policy, the OPEC+ group, made up of seven members, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, decided to keep oil production for November 2026 at existing levels after concluding a video conference meeting on Sunday, October 4. The next meeting will be held on November 1 to review market conditions and decide the next step in production policy.

JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs assess that crude oil export volumes from the Middle East are likely to recover to pre-war levels, though risks remain. JPMorgan said crude shipments have recovered to 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels, while shipments of refined products such as diesel and gasoline stand at 3 million barrels per day, or 58% of pre-war levels. Measured on a 10-day average over the past five days, overall oil shipment volumes stand at 89% of 2025 levels. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to their late-June peak of nearly 13 million barrels per day, led by exports from Saudi Arabia, which has restored about half of its exports through the East-West Pipeline to Red Sea ports after attacks earlier in the month. Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Persian Gulf, including a rise in covertly shipped oil, reached 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, close to the 2025 average, and assessed that the global oil market was broadly balanced in September. Saudi Arabia's exports more than doubled in September and were above the 2025 average, while Brent crude is on track for a third consecutive monthly gain, expected to rise about 14% in September.

The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen revealed that it intercepted 2 guided missiles and 2 drones fired into Saudi Arabia by the Iran-backed Houthi group. The two missiles were headed toward the city of Khamis Mushait, while the two drones were headed toward Riyadh. Civil defense authorities issued warning alerts overnight for the Khamis Mushait and Abha areas, but no alert was issued for Riyadh. The attack came after the Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia in July, targeting Saudi ships in the Red Sea, creating pressure on global oil supplies and risk to Red Sea shipping routes, while navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked. Amid the situation, military commanders of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, which are defense allies, met in Riyadh just a few hours earlier to review the threats Saudi Arabia is facing, after the three countries signed the joint Mecca defense agreement in August, which states that an armed attack on any one country will be considered an attack on all. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman said he discussed with Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief, in Riyadh and confirmed the continuation of joint cooperation to counter attacks under the agreement.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that ending the war, now in its seventh month, depends on a decision by the United States. Speaking in an interview with Fox News broadcast on Thursday, September 24, he said America must choose whether to end this, after being asked whether the war could end by the end of this year. Fighting continues, with Houthi forces launching a barrage of missiles and drones at targets in Saudi Arabia on the morning of September 25. Saudi authorities said they intercepted six missiles and issued alerts in Mecca, Jeddah and Yanbu. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are preparing an emergency meeting of military commanders to discuss ways to assist Saudi Arabia under the joint Mecca defense agreement, and Saudi Arabia's Grand Mufti called on forces to be ready to fight the Houthis until the group is removed from power. Pezeshkian said the Houthis must take responsibility for their own actions and that Iran is not in a state of war with Saudi Arabia. The Iran issue was also raised at the US-China summit in Washington, where Chinese President Xi Jinping, during a three-day visit to the United States, discussed a range of issues with President Donald Trump, including trade, artificial intelligence, Taiwan and Iran. Zhai Jun, China's special envoy for the Middle East, said the situation in the Middle East was one of the key issues discussed by the US and Chinese leaders, and said the shared views of both sides are important for defusing the conflict. Trump wants China to help pressure Iran to find a way to end the war, after the United States and Iran returned to indirect talks on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Iranian officials have signaled that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days if the United States begins to ease its maritime blockade of Iranian ports.

French President Emmanuel Macron has revealed that France is preparing to send military equipment to help defend Yanbu, a key industrial and energy hub on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast. In an interview with French television station TF1 on Thursday, September 24, he said France had reached a final agreement in talks with Saudi Arabia on sending military equipment to protect the area, including troops, radar and air defense systems. Asked about the possibility of sending Rafale fighter jets, Macron said France would consider it based on changes in the situation and necessity, noting, "We already have some fighter jets stationed in this region." The French leader said the most important thing for him was "bringing energy prices down," and also mentioned the need to release oil from reserves and restore smooth transport routes in the Middle East. Xinhua News Agency reported that Macron's remarks came after Yemen's Houthi group said on Saturday, September 19, that it had launched a large-scale attack in Saudi Arabia, targeting the Saudi capital Riyadh and the city of Yanbu, marking a major escalation of the conflict between the two sides. Earlier on Thursday, the Saudi-led coalition said its air defense systems had intercepted six Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at the Saudi cities of Taif and Yanbu, while Saudi Arabia continued its air strikes against Houthi-held areas across Yemen.

West Texas and Brent crude prices rose about 3% after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, raising concerns over supply and the safety of energy infrastructure, particularly the East-West Pipeline and the port of Yanbu, which are key routes for Saudi Arabia's oil exports. West Texas crude stood at 94.61 dollars per barrel, up 2.45 dollars, and Brent crude stood at 106.60 dollars per barrel, up 3.52 dollars. The oil price situation analysis unit of Thai Oil Public Company Limited said the market is still watching tensions between the United States and Iran after the United States expanded secondary sanctions against foreign companies doing business with Iran, while Iran has signaled retaliation against countries that comply with those measures. However, after the market closed, Iran's foreign minister revealed that Iran had submitted a proposal to the United States through intermediaries during talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations to end the conflict within seven days. This development raises hopes that tensions in the Middle East may ease and opens the way for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to return to greater normality, which would help increase the volume of oil reaching global markets and reduce supply risks.

North Sea Brent crude for November delivery closed at $106.60 a barrel, up $3.52, or 3.4%, hitting its highest level since September 15, after Yemen's Houthi group fired missiles at Saudi Arabia, raising concerns that energy supplies could be disrupted. During the session, prices climbed as much as 5%, the day's high, before paring gains after reports that the United States and Iran were discussing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas crude for November delivery closed at $94.61 a barrel, up $2.45, or 2.7%, its first gain in several days after falling 13% over the previous six trading sessions. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted six missiles fired by the Houthis into the southern province of Taif and the Red Sea city of Yanbu, while Iranian airlines were suspended from operating in several neighboring countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Reuters reported, citing sources, that US and Iranian negotiators in New York are discussing a step-by-step path to ending the war, which could include Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its economic blockade. Dennis Ross, a former US negotiator, put the odds of the two sides reaching a deal before the November 3 midterm elections at just 30%.

Goldman Sachs has raised its December Brent crude forecast to $85 a barrel as persistent energy-supply disruptions push inflation expectations higher across Asia. The call carries a twist for investors: with Brent recently trading around $100 and the supplied market snapshot showing roughly $107, the higher forecast still implies a significant retreat from current levels, suggesting the bank expects geopolitical risk premiums to fade rather than oil's latest surge to persist. The adjustment follows months of disrupted Middle East supplies and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which have left energy-importing Asian economies particularly exposed. Goldman expects higher energy costs to show up more clearly in September import and producer prices across Asia-Pacific economies, with a smaller immediate impact on consumer inflation because subsidies and regulated prices in several countries cushion households. The bank expects particularly stronger-than-consensus 2027 inflation in India and Malaysia, while its forecasts sit further below consensus in Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines. Saudi Arabia has restarted its East-West pipeline, but full capacity could take weeks to recover.

SLB announced it has been awarded four integrated well construction contracts by Aramco to support oil and gas development across the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Under the three-year contracts, SLB will manage end-to-end well construction services and deliver more than 450 wells, with an optional extension of up to two years. The awards represent a significant expansion of SLB's integrated well construction business in the Kingdom and build on decades of collaboration between the two companies. SLB's integrated model combines digital drilling workflows with automated drilling, evaluation, fluids, cementing, and completions products and services. Steve Gassen, executive vice president of Geographies for SLB, said awarding these advanced well construction programs at scale reflects Aramco's confidence in the company's integrated model and capabilities.

Microsoft unveiled plans for a total investment of more than 10 billion US dollars across the Gulf states, namely the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, spanning the period from now through 2030, aimed at expanding cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure, alongside a digital resilience strategy to cope with uncertainty from regional war. Brad Smith, vice chair and president of Microsoft, told Reuters on Wednesday, September 23, that the funding reflects continued infrastructure building and expansion of operations in the Middle East, with the company proceeding with plans laid before the conflict and accelerating budget allocation more aggressively, alongside cooperation with Gulf state governments on crisis response and protection of critical data. The investment plan of more than 400 million US dollars to develop undersea cable networks and terrestrial networks across the Middle East region by 2030 is a sub-component of the total 10 billion US dollar investment plan. On the local partner front, Microsoft is also deepening cooperation with Abu Dhabi's G42, in which it acquired a minority stake worth 1.5 billion US dollars in 2024, which also brought Smith onto its board of directors, as well as working with Saudi Arabia's Humain and Qatar's Qai on major projects in each country, though there are no plans to inject joint investment funds into the latter two companies.

West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude prices declined after Saudi Arabia resumed operations at the East-West Pipeline on September 22, 2026, and was able to resume oil exports through the Yanbu port the same day, easing market concerns over oil supply risks from the conflict situation in the Middle East. WTI crude stood at 94.59 dollars per barrel, down 1.19 dollars per barrel, while Brent crude stood at 99.25 dollars per barrel, down 1.09 dollars per barrel. However, returning the pipeline to full capacity may take approximately 6-8 weeks. The market is still monitoring the situation around the Strait of Hormuz after Iran expressed readiness to reopen the strait within 7 days if the United States eases military pressure and ends its blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has lowered expectations for a near-term peace deal with Iran, stating that an agreement may come after the U.S. midterm elections in early November 2026, and the market is also watching the United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA, meeting in New York this week.

Saudi Arabia has partially restarted the crude oil pipeline linking the east and west of the country, Reuters reported, citing multiple sources. The pipeline is part of a route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for crude shipments that has been effectively blockaded, but it had been shut down after being hit by a drone attack on the 10th of this month. It is now operating at reduced flow. According to security sources, it will take several days to restore flow to 40 percent of capacity, and six to eight weeks for a full recovery.

A senior Iranian official told Kyodo News that Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States begins preliminary steps to reduce military pressure, part of the Iranian government's stepped-up efforts to revive negotiations with Washington. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has increased crude oil exports through its Gulf coast ports after last week's attacks forced a halt to oil shipments through the East-West Pipeline, which links the eastern oil-producing region to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the UK will send one Voyager aerial refueling aircraft to Saudi Arabia in the coming days to support national defense missions, after Saudi Arabia faced an increase in attacks from the Houthi group. On the technology front, Alibaba Group announced a major strategic plan to train a new generation of artificial intelligence models with parameter sizes of up to 5 to 10 trillion, along with the launch of the latest-generation Zhenwu V900 AI chip and plans to expand data centers, to drive a comprehensive AI infrastructure strategy spanning models, processing chips, and cloud data centers. Meanwhile, a South Korean appellate court ruled to reduce the prison sentence of Kim Keon-hee, wife of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, to five years from the seven years handed down by the lower court, in a corruption case that included the selling of posts in state agencies. And Converse, a Nike-owned shoe brand, announced it is removing its controversial advertisement from all channels and issued a formal apology after facing intense criticism that elements of the image evoked the Ku Klux Klan.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham revealed on Monday, September 21, that the UK will send one Voyager air-to-air refuelling aircraft to Saudi Arabia in the coming days to support its national defence mission, after Saudi Arabia faced increased attacks from the Houthi group. Burnham said the Saudi government had submitted a request for military assistance to the UK, and he approved the air-to-air refuelling support the previous night on the advice of the defence minister and the foreign minister, stating that the support would be for a limited period and that the UK would review it according to the situation. He also stressed that the UK continues to play a role in the Middle East by supporting efforts to open shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. Reports said Saudi Arabia decided to seek help from the UK after the Houthis, who control populated areas of Yemen, stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia, creating a new front amid a regional war that erupted after the United States and Israel struck Iran in late February. Previously, the UK deployed the Sky Sabre air defence system to Saudi Arabia to help defend against missile attacks from Iran during the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. The UK and Saudi Arabia have had close military ties for decades, with the UK being one of the major arms suppliers to Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has increased crude oil exports through ports on the Arabian Gulf after last week's attack forced a halt to oil shipments through the East-West Pipeline, which links the eastern oil-producing region to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. Data from TankerTrackers.com indicated that Saudi Aramco loaded crude onto seven very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, carrying a total of about 14 million barrels in the Arabian Gulf on Sunday, September 20. Satellite images showed all seven vessels near Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura port. Meanwhile, data from Vortexa showed that over the past week Saudi Arabia turned increasingly to Arabian Gulf ports for crude exports, with average loadings of about 3.7 million barrels per day since September 12, up from an average of 2.9 million barrels per day earlier in the month. During September 1-11, loadings through Red Sea ports averaged about 3.9 million barrels per day. The partial recovery pushed Brent crude below 100 dollars a barrel on Monday, September 21, for the first time since September 9, after the September 13 drone attack forced Saudi Arabia to shut the East-West Pipeline and suspend crude loadings at Yanbu port. As a result, Saudi Aramco cancelled spot crude sales to some European customers and shifted to increased sales to Asian customers, using oil from eastern ports and shipping it through the Strait of Hormuz instead.

Cho Thavee Public Company Limited, or CHO, disclosed that on September 14, 2026, the company signed a memorandum of understanding, or MOU, with Tharawat Sanam Company of Saudi Arabia. The main purpose of this cooperation is to develop the manufacturing and assembly of ground support equipment, or GSE, for use at airports in Saudi Arabia, as well as to expand production capacity to support exports within the Middle East region. As for key details of this MOU, no total transaction value has been specified. The agreement has a term of five years from the date of signing, and the parties may mutually agree to extend the cooperation period. The company assesses that the aviation business market in Saudi Arabia is in a period of continuous growth, and the cooperation therefore represents an important step for the company in bringing its internationally recognized technology and engineering capabilities into the Saudi Industrial Localization Ecosystem, as well as creating opportunities to further expand its business in Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East region.

Analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) said refinery stocks are likely to consolidate after the market priced in a smaller-than-feared impact from Saudi Arabia's shutdown of an oil pipeline for repairs, as more oil is being shipped via tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices reversed lower by about 2% on Friday and held steady this morning, even as US-Iran tensions show no sign of easing. The US president expects the conflict to end soon, and the market may give this more weight as the US midterm elections on November 3 approach. If oil prices continue to weaken, especially if they break key support levels, with WTI and Brent support at $99 a barrel and $100 a barrel respectively, a significant pullback is expected. That would pressure bond yields lower and lift investment assets, particularly emerging markets and anti-oil sectors such as power plants, transport and packaging. Meanwhile, upstream energy names, especially refineries, may consolidate on concerns about government intervention.

Hakan Fidan, Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs, said on Saturday, September 19, that Turkey will honour its commitments under the joint Mecca defence agreement in response to recent military attacks on Saudi Arabia, and may provide technical assistance. Fidan told Turkish media that the signatories to the Mecca agreement are closely watching the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, stressing that the agreement contains relevant provisions and that Turkey will keep its promises. He noted that Saudi Arabia's requests for assistance are likely to focus on certain technical matters that Turkey can address. Fidan also rejected claims that implementation of the Mecca agreement is proceeding slowly, pointing out that the alliance is open to countries across the region and constitutes a transformative agreement. The joint Mecca defence agreement was signed on August 7 in the Saudi city of Mecca by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, and Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan. The agreement states that an attack on any signatory will be regarded as an attack on all member states. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group in Yemen have escalated in recent months, with both sides launching repeated retaliatory strikes.

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, faced two air-raid warnings in the early hours of today, September 19, marking the first time the country's capital has seen such alerts since the period when war between the United States and Iran intensified in March and April. Saudi Arabia's early-warning system issued an emergency alert in Riyadh at 4:00 a.m. and again at 6:00 a.m., without disclosing further details. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's civil defense authority said the danger had ended shortly after both alerts. Other areas across the country received similar warnings throughout the past night, including Jeddah and Yanbu on the Red Sea, as well as Farasan Island in the Red Sea. The warnings came amid a new wave of attacks Saudi Arabia has faced in September, with the Iran-backed Houthis based in Yemen striking cities in western Saudi Arabia, including energy infrastructure, over the past week. The Saudi government said a drone attack from Iraq, home to several Iran-backed armed groups, forced the East-West oil pipeline to halt operations. In addition, attacks on the pipeline and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply reduced Saudi Arabia's oil exports and created further problems for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's leader. The renewed conflict also risks affecting Saudi Arabia's efforts to attract investment and tourists, part of its push to diversify the country's economic structure. In October, Riyadh is scheduled to host Saudi Arabia's flagship investment conference, the Future Investment Initiative, with the 2026 annual gathering set to welcome several senior Wall Street executives, including JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon and David Solomon of Goldman Sachs Group.

Boeing has secured regulatory relief to continue selling 777F freighters and gained approval as prime contractor for a US$5.75 billion JDAM-ER munitions package to Saudi Arabia. The FAA waiver covers 35 extra 777F sales, extending a profitable widebody program at a time when free cash flow is constrained by 737 and 787 production issues. Separately, AerSale Corporation previously announced the lease of a Boeing 757-200PCF freighter to Kazakhstan-based Jupiter Jet. Together, the freight and defense developments help offset pressure from ongoing 737 and 787 production challenges, though they do not fully counter the key near-term catalyst of stabilizing 737 output or the biggest risk around cash generation and high debt. Investors are also watching the unresolved risk of a possible SPEEA strike and its potential impact on cash flow.

Lockheed Martin is set to benefit from a US government plan to sell up to 48 F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia, following a notification to Congress in 2026, a package that would mark the first sale of F-35 aircraft to the kingdom. The company also marked the rollout of Germany's first F-35A in 2026, a key step in Berlin's transition to the aircraft. The Saudi notification for up to 48 F-35s would, if approved and executed, add a new Gulf customer to a platform already adopted by 20 nations and operating from 42 bases worldwide, extending an existing global footprint rather than creating a new product line. The next concrete waypoint is formal progression of the Saudi sale through Congress after the 2026 notification, which would turn a proposed package into a contracted backlog line, while for Germany investors can track the first eight F-35 deliveries to Ebbing Air National Guard Base for pilot training beginning this fall. Lockheed Martin, a US aerospace and defense group with a market cap of about $124.2b, designs and builds combat aircraft like the F-35 along with a wide range of military technology systems for governments in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and other regions.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the New York market closed lower on Friday, September 18, with the October contract falling $1.61, or 1.58%, to settle at $100.30 a barrel, after China acted on a request from Saudi Arabia by urging Iran to limit Houthi rebel attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, easing some concerns about risks to key Middle East oil export routes. Meanwhile, the November Brent crude contract fell $0.95, or 0.91%, to settle at $103.87 a barrel. Data from AAA showed U.S. retail diesel prices at $6.45 a gallon, a record high, and IIR Energy estimated that U.S. refining capacity in operation is likely to fall by 371,000 barrels per day next week. JPMorgan said that for the first time since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February, the bank has no clear fundamental view on the oil market. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, with only four cargo ships passing through on Thursday, compared with a 10-day average of about 16 vessels. Oil prices had earlier surged close to four-month highs after crude loadings at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu export terminal were suspended, with Saudi Aramco telling at least two European refining customers that they would not receive crude deliveries next month after the East-West pipeline was damaged in an attack. Three pumping stations serving the pipeline were damaged, one more than previously estimated, and Saudi Arabia is racing to restore the East-West pipeline's transport capacity to about half within the next few days. The United States and Iran have held no further peace talks since a temporary agreement reached in June collapsed, and the U.S. State Department said the war issue will be raised at next week's United Nations General Assembly meeting, which an Iranian delegation is scheduled to attend.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the New York market closed lower on Friday, September 18, after China acted on a request from Saudi Arabia by calling on Iran to limit attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure carried out by Houthi rebels, attacks that have created risks for the Middle East's second-largest oil export route. October-delivery WTI crude fell $1.61, or 1.58%, to close at $100.30 a barrel, while November-delivery Brent crude fell 95 cents, or 0.91%, to close at $103.87 a barrel. Data from AAA showed the U.S. retail price of diesel at $6.45 a gallon, a record high, while the average retail price of gasoline stood at $4.47 a gallon. IIR Energy said on Friday that U.S. refining capacity in operation is expected to fall by 371,000 barrels per day next week, while JPMorgan said on Thursday that, for the first time since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February, the bank has no clear baseline view on the oil market. Bloomberg News reported on Friday that Saudi Aramco has told at least two European refining customers they will not receive crude next month after attacks on a key Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea. Three pumping stations serving Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline were damaged in attacks last week, one more than previously estimated, and Saudi Arabia is trying to restore about half of the East-West pipeline's transport capacity within the next few days.

Crude oil prices in global markets moved without direction, with WTI crude rising while Brent crude fell, as investors kept a close watch on the situation in the Middle East. As of 10:26 p.m. Thailand time, West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery gained 0.30 dollars, or 0.29%, to 102.21 dollars per barrel, while Brent crude for November delivery lost 0.39 dollars, or 0.37%, to 104.44 dollars per barrel. Saudi Arabia has rerouted part of its crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz to compensate for the closure of the East-West Pipeline, easing market concerns that the pipeline shutdown could cause a major disruption to global oil supply. Saudi Arabia decided to increase the volume of crude available to Asian refineries through ship-to-ship transfers near the port of Sohar in Oman. Meanwhile, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Saudi Arabia will reopen the East-West Pipeline soon after it was shut down earlier following an attack by Iran-backed militants. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude stockpiles fell by only 640,000 barrels last week, less than the 1.62 million barrels analysts had expected. In addition, U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week.

The State Department has approved two potential arms sales to Saudi Arabia totaling $5.75 billion, split between a $5 billion package of JDAM-ER guidance kits and bombs and a separate $750 million deal for AGT-1500 tank engines. The JDAM package consists of 5,004 KMU-572 and 5,000 KMU-556 JDAM guidance kits and 5,004 BLU-111 and 5,000 BLU-117 bombs, with Boeing identified as principal contractor for the JDAM-ERs and Honeywell handling the engines. The State Department said the sales would strengthen Saudi Arabia's airborne defense capabilities and improve interoperability with U.S. and Gulf partner forces. For Boeing, the deal is modest against its roughly $85 billion Defense, Space and Security backlog, of which international orders already account for 27%, and the segment reported a second-quarter operating loss largely on charges tied to the VC-25B Air Force One program. For Honeywell Aerospace, the smaller AGT-1500 contract fits its established defense propulsion business and adds to an international defense business that makes up about 30% of its total Defense and Space revenue. Neither potential sale is large enough to meaningfully affect either company's short-term results on its own.

The State Department approved a potential $24.3B sale of 48 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II aircraft to Saudi Arabia, along with 49 Pratt & Whitney F135-PW-100 engines and related equipment, a deal that still requires congressional approval and would strengthen Saudi Arabia's air defense and interoperability with U.S. and allied forces. Separately, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. could postpone announcing new tariffs on China and other countries until after President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping next week; a previously planned trade report was expected to recommend a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods, while the final rate could potentially exceed the 20% level agreed during earlier talks. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company expects to sell roughly twice as many chips next year as this year as demand for AI infrastructure expands. China's ChangXin Memory Technologies is preparing to enter the NAND flash-memory market, with Reuters reporting that CXMT plans an R&D production line at its new Beijing plant and has established a research institute in the city, broadening its focus beyond DRAM. OpenAI has hired Brian McCarthy from SpaceX as vice president of worldwide sales, Fortune reported; McCarthy joined SpaceX through its acquisition of Cursor, where he led global revenue and field operations, and previously held senior sales roles at Rubrik, ThoughtSpot, AppDynamics and Qlik.

Shunichi Kito, chairman of the Petroleum Association of Japan, said at a press conference on the 18th that it is not known how much damage was caused by the attack on the crude oil pipeline linking eastern and western Saudi Arabia, nor how long repairs will take. The pipeline is growing in importance as a procurement route for Middle Eastern crude that does not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively blockaded, and Kito stressed that he hopes it will be restored as soon as possible. Meanwhile, he disclosed that crude procurement arrangements for oil wholesalers are secured through November. He expressed the view that, with alternative procurement progressing even as the Middle East conflict drags on, there is no need for now to release oil from reserves.

The State Department has approved a potential $24.3B sale of F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jets built by Lockheed Martin to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia requested 48 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter aircraft, 49 Pratt & Whitney F135-PW-100 engines and other equipment. The proposed sale, which would require congressional approval, will strengthen Saudi Arabia's homeland defense and improve interoperability with U.S., regional and NATO forces, the State Department said, adding that it will not alter the military balance in the region or adversely impact U.S. defense readiness. The Saudi embassy in Washington said the proposed F-35 sale reflects the strength and enduring nature of the Saudi-U.S. strategic partnership and the continued advancement of defense cooperation. The approval follows other U.S. arms deals cleared with Saudi Arabia this year, including a $5B sale of bombs and guidance kits and a $1.96B sale of Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems.

Yuanta Securities raised its Dubai crude oil price assumptions for 2026-2027 to 90 dollars per barrel from 85 dollars per barrel, and to 75 dollars per barrel from 70 dollars per barrel, respectively, after Middle East tensions dragged on longer than previously expected, with the situation having been expected to gradually ease in the second half of 2026. Instead, tensions re-escalated from early September after the United States and Iran resumed attacks on each other following a ceasefire that had held since July, and the conflict also spread to Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group, which attacked refineries and the East-West Pipeline that carries roughly 4-5 million barrels per day, or 4-5% of global supply. Saudi Arabia said it could restore partial operation of about 50% within the next few days, but a full return to capacity may take around six weeks. The research team raised its 2026-2027 net profit forecasts for PTTEP by 5-12% to 77 billion baht and 72 billion baht, respectively. It maintained its investment weighting for the energy sector at "equal to market" and sees upstream energy stocks PTT, PTTEP and BANPU as the main choices for investment at this time, with BANPU as the top pick with a "buy" rating and a fair value of 19.00 baht, driven by its gas business in the United States, which is supported by the data center industry, and its coal business, which benefits from demand substituting for LNG in a region strained by war. Meanwhile, risk-averse investors can invest in PTT with a "buy" rating and a fair value of 45.00 baht, based on its integrated business with lower volatility and consistently high dividend payouts.

Silver climbed for a second straight session to around $65.80 per troy ounce as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns and pulled US Treasury yields lower. Crude declined after news that Saudi Arabia was working to restore flows through its East-West pipeline, while attention also turned to upcoming meetings between US President Donald Trump and Gulf leaders. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.93% after briefly breaching 5.0% earlier in the week, with Societe Generale strategists citing lower oil and gas prices and Axios reporting that the US plans to resume negotiations over Iran with Gulf States next week. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone, saying inflation has remained too high for too long and that summer data showed no meaningful structural improvement. Following his remarks, the CME FedWatch tool showed traders pricing a 53.1% probability of another rate hike at the Fed's October meeting, up from 44% the previous day.