McCormick Fair Value Cut to US$54.85 as Analysts Weigh Q3 Beat and UL Foods Risk

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McCormick's fair value estimate has been lowered to US$54.85 from US$60.15 on this model, as analysts balance confidence in Q3 execution against caution on longer-term growth, integration of the UL Foods deal, and Americas volume trends. BofA keeps a Buy rating and calls Q3 an earnings beat driven by gross margin, while trimming its price target to US$55 from US$65, and Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating with a reduced target of US$57 from US$59, pointing to improved FY26 performance even as it factors in added complexity for FY27. JPMorgan reiterates an Overweight rating and adjusts its target modestly to US$62 from US$63, noting McCormick is still showing growth at a time when some peers are not. On the bearish side, TD Cowen cut McCormick to Hold and lowered its target to US$48 from US$55, citing weaker execution in U.S. retail, share loss in spices and seasonings, and a tough setup for the combined UL Foods business, while Stifel, UBS, Barclays and others reset targets into the high US$40s range on caution around slower volume improvement in the Americas, inflation, and execution and financing risk tied to the UL Foods integration. The model now assumes revenue growth of 5.06% versus 5.80% previously, a net profit margin of 7.85% versus 7.92%, and a future P/E multiple of 26.23x versus 28.93x, with the discount rate effectively unchanged at about 7.24%.

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McCormick & Company Incorporated
MKC
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Analysts cut McCormick's fair value and price targets (BofA to $55, TD Cowen to $48) while balancing a Q3 earnings beat against UL Foods integration and Americas volume risk.

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