Panmure Liberum, a British securities firm, warns that the current stock market bull run may end sooner than many investors expect, and forecasts that the U.S. S&P 500 index will fall to 5,000 points by the end of 2027, compared with its latest close of 7,722.72 points, a decline of more than 35%, amid pressure from elevated bond yields and interest rates. The S&P 500 is still continuing the bull market that began in October 2022 and has risen 12.8% since the start of 2026. Joachim Klement, an analyst in Panmure Liberum's research division, said that if bond yields and interest rates continue to rise, the end of the bull market may be closer than many investors expect. The upcoming third-quarter earnings season, as well as companies' disclosure of business outlooks for 2027 early next year, will be key tests. This view differs sharply from that of many securities firms, which expect the S&P 500 to close 2026 at 8,000 points or higher and see the bull market continuing into 2027. Panmure Liberum also holds a negative view on European stock markets, expecting the STOXX 600 index to fall to 430 points by the end of next year and the UK's FTSE 100 index to fall to 8,260 points, both significantly below current levels. Klement also warned that if the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raise interest rates further, it could accelerate the end of the current bull market. This follows last month's rate hikes by several major central banks, including the Fed and the European Central Bank, to curb inflationary pressures amid higher energy costs and an economy that remains strong.
Panmure Liberum is the firm issuing the bearish S&P 500 forecast; the article reports its own prediction, not a company-specific driver.
