Prediction market traders now see roughly a one-in-four chance that Paramount Skydance's bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery will fail. On Kalshi, traders assign a 74% likelihood that Paramount will acquire Warner Bros. by July 2027, with 22% odds that no deal goes through by that date. Before California and 11 other states sued to block the merger on July 13, odds of success were over 80%, but they fell to as low as 66% on July 24 when Paramount announced it would delay the acquisition to 2027. On Polymarket, odds are a similar 23% that no acquisition succeeds by June 30, 2027. The merger's termination date is March 4, 2027, automatically extending to June 4, 2027 if only regulatory obstacles remain, and a federal judge has set a March 2027 trial date for the states' lawsuit.
Paramount Skydance CorporationLawsuit by states and delay reduce odds of acquiring Warner Bros.
Warner Bros Discovery IncMerger faces regulatory lawsuit and lower success odds.
