Saudi Arabia announced the closure of the East-West pipeline after reports of a drone attack on September 11, 2026, believed to have been launched from Iraq, sending Brent crude up to trade around 107-108 dollars per barrel from 104.6 dollars per barrel last Friday. The pipeline had been carrying about 4 million barrels per day, or roughly 4% of global oil supply, to Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast. The extent of the damage and the repair timeline have not been clearly disclosed. Some sources estimate repairs could take about 5-6 weeks, while others say it could be faster, with partial pumping possibly resuming during repairs. If the pipeline remains out of service, sources estimate that oil stocks at Yanbu port may be sufficient for only 5-7 days of exports, even though the area has storage capacity of about 35 million barrels. Meanwhile, Houthi militants have reportedly reached strategic areas including Perim Island, Hanish Island, the coastal city of Mokha and Dubab, which could increase their ability to control key shipping routes through the Red Sea. Dao Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited assesses that the renewed escalation of conflict will be a positive factor for crude oil prices in the short term, maintaining its average Dubai crude price assumption for 2026 at 85 dollars per barrel, with a positive view on upstream energy stocks but a negative view on refineries. It maintains an "equal to market" investment weighting for the energy sector and names PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, as its top pick with a "buy" recommendation and a target price of 180 baht.
Pipeline shutdown after drone attack cuts ~4% of global oil supply, pushing Brent up to around 107-108 dollars per barrel.
Saudi East-West pipeline closure removes ~4 million bpd (4% of global supply), tightening crude supply and lifting oil prices.
