Tisco Securities has lowered its profit forecast for Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, after flooding disrupted operations. The research house cut its 2026 and 2027 profit forecasts by 2% and 34% respectively, after THAI cancelled more than 160 flights following heavy rain on 26 September, due to a shortage of staff affected by flooding in many areas of Bangkok and around the airport. The research house reduced its 2026 net profit forecast for THAI by 4% to reflect the impact of the flight cancellations and an additional 360 million baht in compensation expenses, which is expected to affect third-quarter 2026 results. The short-term impact on net profit is estimated at 365 to 435 million baht, and if compensation under EU261 rules for cancelled flights destined for the European Union is included, the impact on net profit could rise to about 430 million baht. For 2027, the research house cut its net profit forecast by 34%, incorporating a further 5% reduction in average fares from its previous forecast, on top of an earlier 5% cut, meaning average fares are now expected to fall by a total of 10%, in line with THAI's strategy to raise aircraft utilisation and support ASK growth of 18% next year as planned. The research house maintained its Buy recommendation for THAI but lowered its fair value from 7.80 baht to 7.60 baht, rolling its valuation base forward to 2027F.
Thai Airways International Public Company LimitedTisco cut THAI's 2026/2027 profit forecasts and lowered its fair value to 7.60 baht after flood-related flight cancellations and compensation costs.
