Trinity Securities estimates that Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited, or KTB, will report third-quarter 2026 profit of 12,979 million baht, up 7% from the previous quarter but down 11% from a year earlier. The year-on-year decline stems from the fact that in the third quarter of 2025 the bank marked its investments to market, producing a large one-off gain on investments. The quarter-on-quarter growth comes from net interest income, which is expected to improve 2% QoQ on a return to loan growth after the previous quarter saw repayments of government and large corporate loans. Net interest margin is expected to edge up by about 3 basis points as funding costs decline on repricing and loan rates begin to stabilise. Non-interest income is expected to improve considerably, by around 9% QoQ, mainly on gains from investments and dividends received. The non-performing loan ratio is expected to hold steady, but given macroeconomic volatility and the flood situation affecting retail customers, the bank and its subsidiaries may decide to set aside additional reserves, with excess reserve expenses expected to rise about 6% QoQ. The research team maintains its 2026 profit forecast at 48,084 million baht, flat year on year, and keeps its 2027 target price at 41 baht, based on a price-to-book value of 1.1 times. Even including an expected dividend yield of about 6% a year, total upside is still not high, so the recommendation remains buy on weakness, with risks seen from an economic slowdown and deteriorating debt quality.
Krung Thai Bank Public Company LimitedTrinity estimates KTB's Q3 profit will recover 7% QoQ and maintains a buy-on-weakness rating with a 41 baht target price.
