Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited

The Ministry of Finance announced that those who pass the screening for the 2026 State Welfare Card project must complete identity verification via e-KYC if the system notifies them to do so, before they can use their benefits the following day. Those who wish to use their benefits through the Paotang app can verify their identity via the Paotang app until January 12, 2027. Identity verification through Krungthai Bank is also available until January 12, 2027. Identity verification through the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives, the Government Savings Bank, the Government Housing Bank, and the Islamic Bank of Thailand, for those who wish to use their benefits through other channels, is available until October 14, 2026. As for changing the channel for using benefits, those who wish to switch from the Paotang app to their national ID card must do so at Krungthai Bank, while those who wish to switch from their national ID card to the Paotang app can do so themselves through the Paotang app.

Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS strategists at Krungthai Bank, or KTB, assess the baht's range this week at 33.25 to 33.85 baht per dollar, with the currency's weakening momentum still intact and the risk open that the baht will slide to test the resistance zone of 33.85 baht per dollar. Thai players in the market are awaiting the September CPI inflation report, which is expected to rise to 3.17%, up 0.6% month on month. Core CPI is expected to rise to 1.60%, driven by higher energy prices in September and continued increases in food prices, including meat, vegetables and fruit, due to erratic weather, as well as ready-to-eat food prices following operators passing through costs and the boost from the government's economic stimulus measures. However, the cut in electricity charges will help slow the rise in inflation somewhat. On the Asian side, market players will await an assessment of Japan's economic outlook and the monetary policy direction of the Bank of Japan, or BOJ, through the wage growth report. Most recently, market players estimate the BOJ has about a 93% chance of raising rates one more time this year and may raise rates another two to three times next year. Meanwhile, analysts expect the Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, may raise its policy rate by 0.25%, or 25 basis points, to 5.50%, with a chance of further hikes, after India's inflation remains high and risks rising above the RBI's target range. The rupee has also reversed to weaken near its weakest point of the year again, which could further fuel inflation. The situation in the Middle East remains a key factor affecting the baht's direction through shifts in market players' views on the rate outlook for major central banks, which affects the dollar, long-term bond yields and gold prices, and also directly affects the Thai economy through volatile energy prices, transport costs and shipping freight rates. The baht still faces Two-Way Risk and can move in either direction. In the short term, the baht could continue to weaken if market players gradually raise the odds of a Fed rate hike, whether this year or next, depending on the Middle East situation, remarks from Fed officials and U.S. economic data reports. Recently, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has swung with energy prices tied to developments in the Middle East, with a 30-day correlation averaging above 72% over the past month, meaning the baht cannot clearly reverse to strengthen until market players begin to hope for a ceasefire negotiation between the United States and Iran.

Krungthai COMPASS research center at Krungthai Bank reported that Thailand's high-value-added Longevity Food market will grow from 15.7 billion baht in 2024 to 32.0 billion baht in 2035, a CAGR of 6.7% per year, driven by an aging society and a rising number of patients with chronic non-communicable diseases, expected to increase from about 22 million people in 2024 to nearly 30 million in 2035. Dr. Supree Srisamran, Director of the Krungthai COMPASS research center, stated that Thais' average life expectancy rose from 76.8 to 77.6 years during 2016-2021, but healthy life expectancy fell from 67.2 to 65.8 years, widening the period of living with health limitations from 9.6 to 11.8 years. Meanwhile, the burden of NCDs creates economic costs of about 1.6 to 1.7 trillion baht per year, and if the number of NCD patients fell by 5%, it would reduce economic costs by about 141 billion baht per year, or roughly 4.4 times the value of the Longevity Food market. Mr. Kritsanon Jindawong, an analyst at the Krungthai COMPASS research center, advised Thai operators to accelerate upgrading products in the Longevity Food segment to carry clear and credible health claims, while investing in research and development and building partnerships with players in the Health Ecosystem to elevate Thailand's food business toward creating added value through innovation and health knowledge.

DAOL Securities (Thailand) expects the SET index to be volatile today but sees momentum better than the previous day after PCE figures came in below expectations, giving a support range of 1,530-1,545 points and a resistance range of 1,572-1,586 points. It noted that still-high US bond yields put emerging markets at risk of fund flows returning to the US, and recommended using sharp share price declines as an opportunity to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks, especially banks, where it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For today's top pick, it recommends buying ADVANC, expecting normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 at 13.6 billion baht, up 13% year on year and down 1% quarter on quarter, driven by the mobile and FBB businesses where net adds and ARPU improved. It maintained its 2026 profit forecast at 53.5 billion baht, up 12% year on year, with the fourth quarter of 2026 to be supported by the high season and a full quarter of recognition of new iPhone sales. Meanwhile, flooding in Bangkok, its surrounding provinces and more than 20 other provinces pressured bank and insurance stocks, sending the SET to close yesterday at 1,559.01 points, down 2.21%. Six major banks announced relief measures for customers, such as a three-to-six-month suspension of principal and interest payments and special-rate rehabilitation loans. As for the Thailand-US trade agreement talks, the principles were concluded on September 30, as disclosed by Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Supajee, but the Access Capacity measure remains, with Thailand aiming to finalise details before November to avoid higher tariffs and targeting an overall tariff rate of no more than 19%.

Pi Securities reported that foreign investors continued to sell Thai stocks, with net selling totaling roughly 15 billion baht since the start of September, and heavy selling occurred yesterday when about 7 billion baht flowed out in a single day. One of the most heavily sold groups was banking, which along with energy and electronics has been one of the standout performers this year, prompting profit-taking in shares such as SCB, KBANK and BBL. KTB's price was less volatile because buying from Vayupak Fund helped support it. Part of the selling pressure stemmed from bank share prices that had risen very strongly earlier, combined with global market uncertainty including the U.S. debt problem, oil prices, inflation concerns and rising bond yields, as well as the direction of U.S. interest rates, where the market is increasingly seeing a chance of a hike, leading some investors to reduce risk and lock in profits first. The recent decline in the SET is therefore not too worrying, because both market fundamentals and domestic buying continue to help support it. As for the banking group, although it may still face profit-taking pressure in the short term and this quarter's earnings may not grow as strongly as before, the overall fundamental picture has not changed, especially the banks' still-strong financial positions, combined with high yield levels and dividend payouts early next year that will provide another supporting factor. Therefore, if bank share prices fall on foreign selling, it is still seen as an opportunity to gradually accumulate rather than to reduce exposure.

Currency and capital market strategists at Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, a unit of Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited, or KTB, said the 10-year US bond yield is moving volatilely in a sideways range around 5.20%-5.30%, and maintained their recommendation for market participants to gradually buy long-dated US bonds when yields rise, or Buy on Dip, after the 10-year US bond yield climbed above the 5.20% zone. This pushes the break-even yield that would turn holding long-dated bonds into a loss on a total return basis as high as 5.70%-5.80%, which could happen if market participants believe the Fed may need to accelerate rate hikes or raise rates another 3-4 times, or roughly 75 basis points to 100 basis points, from the current expectation that the Fed may hike rates about 3-4 more times by the middle of next year. This view is consistent with market participants scaling back the odds that the Fed will hike rates twice this year, following recent remarks by Fed officials and the gradual decline in energy prices. In the currency market, the dollar moved in a sideways range, with the dollar index DXY still fluctuating around 101.4 points within a 101.2-101.6 range. Meanwhile, gold prices, specifically COMEX gold futures for December 2026 delivery, gradually rebounded to the 4,200 dollars per ounce zone once again, driven by hopes for a ceasefire negotiation trend between the United States and Iran and by views that have somewhat reduced the odds of further Fed rate hikes.

Krungsri Securities said continuous heavy rain in Bangkok and its vicinity from September 24-27, 2026, caused flooding in many areas. Its research team holds a slightly negative view on the Bank and Consumer Finance sectors because of asset quality risks, including provisioning expenses, credit cost, and non-performing loans. It estimates that for every 0.05% increase in provisioning expenses, net profit for the Bank and Consumer Finance sectors in 2027 would face downside of 2.1% and 0.9%, respectively. However, the research team expects financial institutions to roll out borrower relief measures, including debt payment holidays, lower installments and interest rates, and additional loans at special interest rates, which would help reduce the impact on asset quality. It noted that some banks have already introduced borrower relief measures and expects other financial institutions to follow with measures of their own. On investment strategy, Krungsri's research team maintains a BULLISH recommendation on the Bank sector, keeping KBANK with a target price of 300 baht and KTB with a target price of 55 baht as Top Picks. For Consumer Finance stocks, it maintains a NEUTRAL recommendation, keeping KTC with a target price of 54 baht as its Top Pick.

Krungthai Bank, or KTB, has announced emergency measures to assist flood victims, reducing installments by up to 75% and cutting interest rates to 0% per year for 3 months on home loans, personal loans, and SME business loans. For home loans and SSME business loans structured as Term Loans, the bank will reduce installments by 75% of current installments for 1 year and cut interest to 0% per year for 3 months, after which a fixed rate of 2.5% per year applies for 33 months, totaling a special interest period of 3 years. For personal loans structured as Term Loans, installments are reduced by 75% of current installments for 1 year, with a fixed interest rate of 4.5% per year for 3 years. For SME business loans, the bank's assistance covers interest rate reductions, installment reductions, principal payment suspension, interest-only payments, or partial suspension of principal and/or interest payments, as well as contract extensions or adjusted repayment schedules. For business rehabilitation and home repair loans, including Top-up home loans, home equity loans, and SSME business loans structured as Term Loans, a fixed interest rate of 0% per year applies for 3 months, after which a fixed rate of 2.5% per year applies for 33 months, totaling a special interest period of 3 years. Home loans come with free appraisal and mortgage registration fees. SME business Term Loans have a maximum term of no more than 7 years, with special interest starting at 3.5% per year for the first 2 years, after which MLR-1% per year applies. Customers can express their intention to join the measures from August 24, 2026 to December 31, 2026, and must submit their request within 3 months from the date of the incident.