Truckload carrier executives said at Morgan Stanley's Annual Laguna Conference this week that the industry's capacity correction remains in its early innings, with regulatory enforcement, high diesel prices and a Supreme Court broker liability ruling continuing to push small operators out of the market. Jim Filter, President and CEO of Schneider National, said the entry point for new drivers has narrowed through the forced closure of sham driver schools, stricter scrutiny of new motor carriers and tighter oversight of ELD providers, removing drivers who "were not playing by the same rules as everybody else." Filter said Schneider's brokerage unit has cut its approved carrier list to just 14,000 from 60,000 at the peak, and warned that not 100,000 carriers on the road could be considered safe. Werner Enterprises executives said the capacity crunch may only be in the second or third inning, citing a recent Texas Supreme Court ruling involving Home Depot that dismissed the retailer as a defendant after it hired a reputable carrier. Werner forecast a 10% to 13% year-over-year increase in one-way rate per total mile for the third quarter, following a 10% gain in the second quarter, and expects its dedicated fleet, which makes up 80% of its truckload network, to capture a 3% to 5% year-over-year increase in revenue per truck per week for full-year 2026. Both carriers said demand is not the biggest hurdle to growth, with Filter noting that the amount of supply that has exited has created enough demand for their services.
Schneider National IncCEO Jim Filter said regulatory enforcement, high diesel prices and tighter oversight are forcing small operators out, and Schneider cut its approved carrier list to 14,000 from 60,000, tightening capacity in its favor.
Werner Enterprises IncWerner executives said the capacity correction is only in the second or third inning and forecast 10-13% YoY rate-per-mile gains as small carriers exit the market.
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