Trulieve Cannabis shares fell after DEA Chief Judge Derek Julius paused the federal cannabis rescheduling case, a regulatory setback that immediately weighed on sector sentiment as investors reassessed the timing of regulatory change. The stock has dropped about 12% on a 1 day share price basis and is down 13% over the past week, though it still shows a 25% year to date share price gain and a 1 year total shareholder return close to 30%. On the most followed valuation view, Trulieve Cannabis screens as 40% undervalued, with a fair value of about $18.18 against a last close of $10.90. That narrative assumes federal reclassification of medical marijuana to Schedule III, along with the ability to register with the DEA and deduct ordinary expenses, will reduce the impact of 280E and free up more cash to support earnings and operating margins over time, using a 7.24% discount rate. The framework also embeds expectations for revenue to trend lower over the next few years and for Trulieve Cannabis to remain loss making on paper, and two pressure points could upend the 40% undervalued story if federal rescheduling rules disappoint or new market investments miss return expectations.
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.DEA judge paused the federal cannabis rescheduling case, delaying the Schedule III reclassification that underpins Trulieve's 280E relief thesis
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