TSMC Rated Zacks Rank #2 as Earnings Estimates Point to 55.5% Growth

Taiwan's stock market is emerging as a more compelling choice than South Korea's for investors looking to ride the artificial intelligence wave in the final stretch of 2026, after growth in the AI industry began spreading from chipmakers to other businesses across the supply chain. Taiwan's Taiex index has jumped roughly 72% since the start of 2026, the highest among more than 90 global equity indexes tracked by Bloomberg, while South Korea's KOSPI has gained about 63%, ranking second. In the third quarter, the Taiex outperformed the KOSPI by about 23 percentage points, the widest gap since the early 2000s, and earnings estimate upgrades for Taiwanese listed companies outpaced South Korea's for the first time since March 2025. Earnings estimates for companies in the Taiex were revised up by about 19% in the quarter ending in September, compared with an increase of about 15% for KOSPI companies. A Bank of America fund manager survey in September found that about 40% of respondents said they were overweight Taiwanese stocks relative to the benchmark, compared with 25% who held the same view on South Korean stocks. In the survey of 87 fund managers overseeing a combined 211 billion dollars in assets, 35% said Taiwan would be the Asian stock market to benefit most from AI going forward, while only 5% chose South Korea. A key factor is Taiwan's industrial structure, which is linked to the AI supply chain at many levels, from semiconductor design and manufacturing to chip packaging, networking systems and servers. South Korea's market, by contrast, still relies on just a few large chipmakers, particularly Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which fell between 19% and 33% in the three months ending in September after six straight quarters of gains. Societe Generale continues to favour Taiwanese stocks over South Korean ones, expecting the rise in memory chip prices to slow over the coming quarters before returning to normal in 2028 amid growing competition from Chinese producers. However, Peter Lee, a managing director at Citigroup, believes investors should start accumulating shares such as Samsung and SK Hynix, because the market may be underestimating demand for high-bandwidth memory chips, or HBM, in 2027. On valuations, Taiwan's market trades at about 18 times forward 12-month earnings estimates, above the KOSPI's roughly 5.5 times. And Taiwan's rally is not confined to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. alone. TSMC shares rose 2.9% in the quarter ending in September, their sixth straight quarterly gain, while about 10% of stocks in the Taiex have at least doubled since the start of the year, compared with just 4.1% of KOSPI stocks and 5.7% of stocks in Japan's Nikkei 225.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is set to release its third-quarter 2026 earnings report on Oct. 15, with robust artificial intelligence demand and advanced process technology ramp-ups supporting a strong revenue trajectory. TSMC reported July revenues of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% year over year, and August revenues of NT$514.81 billion, up 53.3% year over year, for a combined NT$982.39 billion across the two months. The company's third-quarter guidance calls for revenues of $44.6-$45.8 billion, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate sits slightly below the upper end at $45.62 billion, implying 37.8% year-over-year growth. The consensus estimate projects third-quarter EPS of $4.45, signaling 52.4% year-over-year growth, up from $4.03 per share in recent months. TSMC expects third-quarter gross margin of 65%-67% and operating margin of 56%-58%, while management announced an additional $100 billion investment in Arizona for 2nm-and-below logic fabs and advanced packaging facilities.

AT&S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik AG announced in late September 2026 an expanded collaboration with Marvell Technology to increase advanced IC substrate capacity for next-generation AI and cloud infrastructure. Marvell also affirmed a quarterly dividend of US$0.06 per share payable on October 29, 2026. The deeper manufacturing partnership gives Marvell greater access to complex packaging technologies that are increasingly critical for high-performance AI chips and data center hardware. The new AT&S capacity fits into Marvell's March 2026 plan to commit about US$1.0b in supplier prepayments and long term manufacturing agreements, an effort to lock in scarce substrates for AI optics and complex ICs. Marvell's narrative projects $30.4 billion revenue and $9.6 billion earnings by 2029, requiring 47.5% yearly revenue growth and a $7.0 billion earnings increase from $2.6 billion, while some optimistic analysts see about US$35.7b in 2029 revenue and US$10.1b in earnings.

Applied Materials announced expanded collaborations at its new US$5.00 billion EPIC Center, bringing in KIOXIA to advance next-generation memory and extending its longstanding partnership with BE Semiconductor Industries to co-develop advanced packaging and interconnect technologies for AI-focused chips. The twin push into cutting-edge memory and packaging research and development highlights Applied Materials' ambition to sit at the center of AI-era chip design and manufacturing innovation. The company said the new EPIC Center collaborations with KIOXIA and Besi look more like medium-term positioning than near-term revenue drivers, but they subtly shift the catalyst mix toward advanced packaging and 3D memory integration as critical proof points. The stock's valuation, a BIS settlement reminder on export controls, and concentration in a cyclical industry remain the key risks that could pressure sentiment if conditions change. Ten Simply Wall St Community fair value views span roughly US$279 to US$845 per share, showing how far apart individual estimates can be.