TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, estimates that the baht will move in a range of 32.70-33.50 baht per US dollar this week, from its current level of around 33.12 baht per US dollar. Global financial markets are still giving weight to US economic data that reflects continued inflationary pressure, which could affect the direction of monetary policy at the US central bank, or the Fed, going forward. US inflation data for August came in higher than the market expected in some components, with the core consumer price index, or Core CPI, rising 0.3% from the previous month, and the Super Core CPI accelerating to 0.5%, even though some readings of the core producer price index, or Core PPI, came in below expectations. Meanwhile, the US Treasury announced a buyback programme for 10-20 year government bonds with a maximum value of 6 billion US dollars, which, although above the previous guideline range, was still below what the market had expected. On the US political front, President Donald Trump proposed giving every American adult 5,000 US dollars in assistance if Republicans hold a majority in Congress, though details on the funding source remain unclear. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for September fell to 47.8 from 51.7 the previous month, and came in below market expectations. As for the baht's movement last week, the baht strengthened early in the week in line with regional currencies and the yen's appreciation, before weakening again and trading above 33.00 baht per US dollar late in the week, in line with the US dollar's appreciation after the inflation figures were released, as well as the rise in global crude oil prices.
Higher-than-expected US inflation and Fed policy uncertainty support the dollar over the baht.
