UBS Upgrades Industrial Metals to Overweight on Structural Tailwinds

Freeport-McMoRan reported third-quarter production in line with expectations in early October 2026, confirmed copper sales guidance around 750 million pounds, and flagged lower gold sales near 100,000 ounces due to deferrals from its Indonesian operations. The company deferred roughly 60,000 ounces of refined gold sales into the fourth quarter, a timing shift that can materially move reported quarterly performance without changing underlying production. The update keeps near-term focus on execution at Grasberg and the Indonesian smelters as the key catalyst and most immediate risk. Freeport also affirmed its dividend at US$0.15 per share, split between a base and variable component, as it funds large brownfield projects including Bagdad and the Indonesian smelter build out. The company's narrative projects $39.0 billion in revenue and $5.2 billion in earnings by 2029, while the most pessimistic analysts modeled only about US$35.2 billion of revenue and US$3.5 billion of earnings by that year.

Jiangxi Copper announced on the evening of September 30 that the company signed three daily related-party transaction agreements with its controlling shareholder, Jiangxi Copper Corporation, effective from January 1, 2027 to December 31, 2029, replacing the original contracts expiring on December 31, 2026. Under the Comprehensive Supply and Services Contract I, the company's caps for purchasing materials and receiving services from Jiangxi Copper Corporation from 2027 to 2029 are 17.174 billion yuan, 17.378 billion yuan, and 17.509 billion yuan respectively, totaling more than 52 billion yuan over the three years, a notable increase from previous estimates. The company said this is mainly based on market conditions and future business development needs, compounded by the upward trend in copper prices and significant rises in precious metals such as gold and silver. Under the Comprehensive Supply and Services Contract II, the company's estimated caps for selling products and providing services to Jiangxi Copper Corporation over the same period are 5.571 billion yuan, 6.699 billion yuan, and 6.934 billion yuan respectively, with the adjustment mainly due to expected increases in Jiangxi Copper Corporation's purchases of cathode copper. Regarding leasing, the company plans to rent approximately 50.42 million square meters of land and buildings from Jiangxi Copper Corporation, with annual rent of 195 million yuan, payable quarterly. The above proposals have been reviewed and approved at the twentieth meeting of the company's tenth board of directors, with connected directors abstaining from voting, but they still need to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for approval. Jiangxi Copper Corporation holds a total of 45.72 percent of Jiangxi Copper's shares. As of the end of 2025, its audited total assets were approximately 2.86 trillion yuan, with 2025 operating revenue of approximately 5.79 trillion yuan and net profit of approximately 79.751 billion yuan.

Entrée Resources Ltd. said it is responding to questions raised by a Mongolian Member of Parliament in a plenary session held on October 2, 2026, following the company's update on efforts to transfer the Shivee Tolgoi and Javkhlant mining licenses to its joint venture partner Oyu Tolgoi LLC. The company said Entrée LLC, with support from Oyu Tolgoi LLC and their respective legal and tax advisors, has calculated the values of the licenses, remitted the applicable transfer tax to the Mongolian tax authority, and submitted a request for the authority to review and confirm those valuation calculations, along with supporting documentation and receipts evidencing the remittance. To date, the Mongolian tax authority has not confirmed Entrée LLC's valuation calculations, and has advised the company that it considers the submitted documents and materials incomplete, making it impossible for the authority to issue tax payment certificates. Entrée said it continues to advance the transfer process under applicable laws of Mongolia while discussions continue with the Government Working Group and Oyu Tolgoi project stakeholders regarding State participation in the area of the licenses. The company noted the licenses must be transferred to Oyu Tolgoi LLC for Lift 1 underground development and extraction activities on the Shivee Tolgoi mining license to proceed.