According to a survey released on the 28th by US financial giant Citi and research firm YouGov, long-term inflation expectations among UK households approached their highest level in more than a year in September. Households' one-year-ahead inflation forecast came in at 4.5%, up from 3.9% in August. The longer-term price growth outlook also rose from 4.1% to 4.3%, marking the highest level since June 2025 excluding March of this year. Citi explained that this indicator is now just 15 basis points away from the peak recorded in March. A divergence has emerged between the results of this survey of more than 2,000 households and the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel survey of businesses, with the gap in one-year-ahead inflation expectations reaching 86 basis points as of August, far exceeding the historical average of 16 basis points.
Citigroup Inc.
YouGov plc
