UN Tourism cuts forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in 2026 to 1-2% growth
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The United Nations World Tourism Organization, or UN Tourism, has lowered its forecast for growth in global foreign tourist arrivals in 2026 to 1-2%, down from its previous forecast of 3-4% in January, citing conflict in the Middle East and higher travel costs. The latest World Tourism Barometer report said foreign tourist arrivals in the first half of 2026 rose only 0.4% year on year, with about 690 million people traveling abroad, an increase of roughly 3 million from a year earlier. The first quarter rose 2%, but the second quarter fell 1%, and June alone was down 3% year on year. By region, Africa rose 4%, Europe rose 3%, the Americas rose 2%, and Asia and the Pacific rose 1% but remained 11% below 2019 levels, while the Middle East fell 22% due to the direct impact of the conflict. UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said the latest data show the tourism sector is genuinely under pressure but can still move forward, even though growth remains fragile, and the situation in the Middle East is affecting destinations outside the region. UN Tourism said the downgraded growth outlook will depend on the duration of the conflict, as well as its impact on oil prices and overall inflation, with high prices and uncertainty likely to make tourists focus more on value for money and possibly choose destinations closer to home or travel domestically more often.