UOB Kay Hian expects banking sector Q3 2026 profit at 64 billion baht, down 10%

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Summary · why it matters

UOB Kay Hian Securities estimates the combined net profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026 at approximately 64 billion baht, down 10% from the same period last year. Of this total, BBL is expected to post a profit of 10.535 billion baht, up 10.9% quarter-on-quarter but down 23.6% year-on-year, while KBANK is expected at 12.203 billion baht, down 7.9% quarter-on-quarter and 6.2% year-on-year. KTB is expected to earn 12.121 billion baht, roughly flat versus the previous quarter but down 17.1% year-on-year. The key issue the market is watching is credit cost, which is expected to fall to 1.31% from 1.60% in the third quarter of 2025 and 1.43% in the second quarter of 2026, after several banks set aside special provisions early in the year to cover risks from tensions in the Middle East, though the actual impact in the first half was less severe than feared. Meanwhile, the sector's NPL ratio is expected to hold steady at around 3.1% in the third quarter of 2026. InnovestX Securities and Krungsri Securities both assign an Overweight rating to the banking sector, with KTB as their top pick, while Krungsri Securities names KBANK and KTB as its top picks.

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Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
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UOB Kay Hian forecasts BBL Q3 2026 profit of 10.535 billion baht, down 23.6% year-on-year.

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