The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond surged past 5.2% today, as government bond markets worldwide came under renewed pressure amid inflation concerns driven by rising oil prices. As of 10:10 pm Thailand time, the 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 5.261%, while the 30-year yield was at 5.571%. The 10-year UK government bond yield rose 0.04% to 5.408%, while the 10-year German government bond yield, the benchmark for eurozone debt, held steady at 3.6277%, and 10-year French and Japanese government bond yields each rose more than 0.01%. Investors are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice more this year, following the surge in oil prices and US Treasury yields. The latest FedWatch Tool from CME Group indicates that investors now assign a 68.1% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25% at its October meeting, up from 57.6% last week, and a 55.1% probability to another 0.25% increase to 4.25-4.50% at its December meeting, up from 44.1%. Global crude oil prices soared more than 3%, with West Texas crude surging past 95 dollars per barrel and Brent crude topping 108 dollars per barrel, after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal aimed at ending the conflict in the Middle East and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The US is expected to resume strikes on Iran after the November midterm elections. Investors are also watching the August personal consumption expenditures price index due on Wednesday, US manufacturing data on Thursday, and the September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
