US says China unlikely to invade Taiwan before 2028 as corruption erodes military readiness
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US officials assess that the likelihood of China using military force to invade Taiwan before 2028 has decreased, even though President Xi Jinping has set a goal for the People's Liberation Army, or PLA, to be ready by 2027 to seize Taiwan by force if necessary. Reuters reported this, citing sources familiar with the US government's view, comprising two current US officials, one former US official, and one other person with knowledge of the matter, all of whom provided information on condition of anonymity. A key factor is the delay in improving the readiness of China's military, which has been affected by Xi Jinping's anti-corruption crackdown within the armed forces, as well as the possibility that Beijing may want to wait and see the outcome of Taiwan's presidential election in 2028. US officials also assess that China's military exercises last year were smaller in scale and created less pressure than in several previous years. Meanwhile, investigations and the removal of several senior officials have left the Central Military Commission, which originally had seven members, with only two officials still in active service, including Xi Jinping, who serves as its chairman. The US sources believe that if the Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, wins the election for a fourth consecutive term, especially if President Lai Ching-te is re-elected, the risk that Beijing will consider using force from 2028 onward could increase. Trump has also not yet approved a new arms package worth about 14 billion dollars, saying the matter is a bargaining chip.