Yuanta expects Q3 2026 earnings for 7 bank stocks to fall 11.7%, names KKP top pick with 130 baht target

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Summary · why it matters

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) issued an analysis of the banking sector, expecting the 7 banks under its coverage to post combined net profit of 54,905 million baht in the third quarter of 2026, down 11.7% year-on-year and down 0.9% quarter-on-quarter. The pressure comes from interest income, which is expected to decline amid still-limited loan growth, while net non-interest income is also expected to fall. However, some of the negative factors will be partly offset by slightly eased provisioning, as many banks front-loaded provisions heavily in the first half of this year. For the large banks, earnings are expected to decline year-on-year, but BBL and KTB are expected to begin showing a profit recovery from the previous quarter. The bank expected to post strong net profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter is KKP, supported by its capital markets business and accelerating wealth management. The earnings trend for the fourth quarter of 2026 points to a continued decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, due to lower policy interest rates than a year earlier, while net interest margin is likely to recover more slowly. This supports a full-year 2026 forecast for the banking sector's earnings of 216,680 million baht, down 3.5% year-on-year, before returning to growth in 2027 with an expected 5% increase on the back of anticipated easing in provisioning. Yuanta's research team selected KKP as its top pick with a target price of 130 baht, as it expects the bank's operating results in the third and fourth quarters of this year to outperform other banks, after its capital markets-related businesses continued to grow and it has already set aside provisions for high-risk SME borrowers. It also expects this year's dividend yield to be 6.2%. The team assesses that the recent share price decline stems from foreign fund flows returning to heavier net selling to reduce risk after major flooding in Thailand. However, the research team views that share prices have already priced in much of the concern, to the point that the dividend yields of most banks are back at attractive levels above 6%, so it maintains an equal weight to the market.

Impact on assets 3

Financials± Mixed · 2 stocks
Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited
KTB
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

Yuanta expects KTB's Q3 2026 earnings to decline year-on-year amid falling interest income, though profit is seen recovering from the previous quarter.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▼ · 1 stocks
Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

Yuanta expects BBL's Q3 2026 earnings to decline year-on-year on weaker interest income and limited loan growth, though profit may recover from the prior quarter.

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