After You Public Company Limited

KGI Securities (Thailand) said heavy rain covered Bangkok and its vicinity from September 25, causing flash floods in many areas, with the overall situation beginning to improve slowly from September 27, and it views the impact on the economy and the market as still limited. On the positive side, consumer staples groups such as BJC, CPALL and CPAXT are likely to benefit from stockpiling of fresh food, dry food and necessities. Meanwhile, home and building repair groups such as HMPRO, which has 50% of all its branches in the central region, and TASCO, as well as DOHOME and GLOBAL, are likely to benefit from the positive market conditions as well. However, KGI views this benefit as unlikely to be significant enough to raise its earnings forecasts for the stocks under coverage. On the negative side, the floods may affect customer numbers and goods transport flows for commercial property such as CPN, hotel groups and restaurants, with AWC having the highest concentration in Bangkok and therefore possibly facing the heaviest short-term impact. But if hotel stock prices pull back because of the floods, that would be a buying opportunity, since the main picture is still that revenue per available room is improving and the high travel season is approaching. As for restaurant stocks such as AU, M and MAGURO, they may be somewhat affected, with MAGURO temporarily closing all 6 of its branches, accounting for about 11% of the company's total 61 branches.

KGI Securities notes that the Thai restaurant market continues to grow, but same-store sales growth (SSSG) in July remained mostly negative, reflecting weak purchasing power and intense competition. MAGURO is the only leader in growth with both revenue and profit rising simultaneously, while AU and M are still awaiting recovery. OKJ faces weak demand and declining profits. The research department expects total net profit for 2026F to be 1.19 billion baht, down 9% YoY, before recovering 18% in 2027F. It selects MAGURO as the top pick with a target price of 25 baht, while M has a target price of 26 baht and AU a target price of 4.42 baht.

KGI Securities has lowered its target price for AU to 4.42 baht from 4.60 baht, while maintaining a hold rating, after second-quarter net profit for fiscal 2026 came in at 36 million baht, down 32% from a year earlier and 33% from the previous quarter, 29% below the research team's forecast due to weaker-than-expected revenue and a higher-than-expected SG&A expense ratio. Sales revenue was 394 million baht, up 2% from a year earlier, supported by a 3.3% increase in same-store sales, but non-café business sales, which account for 24% of total revenue, came in at 93 million baht, down 7% from a year earlier. The research team therefore cut its fiscal 2026 net profit forecast by 10% to 194 million baht and its fiscal 2027 forecast by 8% to 211 million baht, expecting second-half profit to recover on stronger tourist arrivals and year-end festive spending.