4 brokerages expect Q3/2026 bank group profits to slow to 49,400-54,980 million baht

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Summary · why it matters

Four leading brokerages estimate that the combined net profit of seven commercial banks in the third quarter of 2026 will slow compared with a year earlier and hold steady to edge down from the previous quarter, with combined net profit expected at around 49,400 to 54,980 million baht, according to Yuanta Securities (Thailand), Bualuang Securities, Finansia Syrus Securities, and Kasikorn Securities. The main pressures come from net interest margins narrowing along the rate-cutting cycle, lower investment and FVTPL gains from a high base a year earlier, and still-limited growth in retail and SME loans. These are partly offset by lighter provisioning after many banks front-loaded reserves in the first half, a steady average non-performing loan ratio of about 3.5%, and fee income beginning to recover on wealth management and capital markets business. For the fourth-quarter outlook, the brokerages see the overall picture weakening further both year on year and quarter on quarter, possibly marking the year's low, while for the full year 2026 they expect the bank group's combined net profit to fall about 3.5% to 5.3% before returning to roughly 5% growth in 2027. On top picks, Yuanta chose KKP with a target price of 130 baht, Bualuang chose KKP, TISCO, BBL, KBANK and TTB, Finansia Syrus chose BBL with a target price of 240 baht and KTB with a target price of 47.30 baht, while Kasikorn chose KTB and KKP, raising their target prices by 1% to 3%.

Impact on assets 7

Financials± Mixed · 5 stocks
TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited
TTB
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

Brokerages expect the bank group's Q3/2026 combined net profit to slow on narrowing net interest margins and lower investment/FVTPL gains, with TTB named among Bualuang's top picks.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 2 stocks
Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Bualuang and Finansia Syrus name BBL a top pick with a 240 baht target, but the group's Q3/2026 profits are seen slowing on margin pressure.

Off-coverage companies 1

BBL Asset Management Company Limited (Bualuang Asset Management)Private± Mixed
relevance

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