Asia Plus Flags Three Scenarios for the Sept 28 Ballot Card Case, Backing a Thai Stock Market Recovery — Buy on Fact

HoonSmart··TH·Read original
3▲3 ▼0Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the Constitutional Court's ruling in the ballot card barcode case on September 28, 2026, will produce three scenarios. In the best case, where the court finds no constitutional violation, the election proceeds on schedule, the government has stability, and it can continue disbursing the budget as well as the 400-billion-baht emergency loan decree to stimulate the economy. This is expected to drive a relief rally in the Thai stock market. In the case where problems are found but the impact is limited, the Election Commission will improve its working process and the government can continue administering the country, with the stock market moving sideways. In the worst case, a political vacuum could emerge, pressuring economic stimulus budgets to slow. A study of statistics during political crises from 2006 to 2022 found that the Thai stock market typically fell by an average of 3.66% in the 30 days before the verdict, but after the ruling the market usually recovered to positive territory, gaining an average of 0.92% over the following 30 days, a pattern known as Buy on Fact. However, foreign capital has flowed out for two consecutive days, totaling 4.1 billion baht, leading the research team to expect limited upside for the SET, with key resistance at 1,610 and 1,630 points. It recommends a defensive strategy in domestic play stocks, including retail and shopping centers, health and medical services, infrastructure and construction contracting, and AI and cybersecurity-themed depositary receipts abroad, highlighting META80, PANW80, BDMS, CPN, and ADVANC as top picks.

Impact on assets 5

Cloud & Digital Infrastructure▲ · 1 stocks
Aging Population▲ · 1 stocks
Real Estate▲ · 1 stocks
Central Pattana Public Company Limited
CPN
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

CPN is named among Asia Plus's top defensive picks in retail and shopping centers, positioned to gain from the anticipated post-verdict Thai market recovery.

Spatial Computing / AR/VR▲ · 1 stocks
Cybersecurity & Digital Trust▲ · 1 stocks
© 2026 MarketIVNews