Asia Plus says SETBANK down 4.3% over one month, recommends accumulating KTB and KBANK

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Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities stated that although the US PCE figure for August came in at 3.4% year-on-year, below market expectations, US 2-year and 10-year bond yields remain elevated at 4.89% and 5.28%, creating volatility for bank stocks in many countries. In the one month since Jackson Hole, the MSCI ACWI Banks index has fallen 3.4%, compared with a 1.3% decline in the MSCI ACWI, while the SETBANK index has continued to slide over the past two days, bringing its one-month loss to 4.3%, led by KKP down 6%, followed by KTB down 5.7% and KBANK down 5.6%, against a 1.9% decline in the SET. On the flood situation as of September 29, the Ministry of Industry reported that 40 provinces have been affected and that 204 SME operators have joined the debt-payment suspension programme, representing debt of about 769 million baht, a proportion that is not high compared with the 14 trillion baht in loans held by the eight banks. The research team estimates that every 0.25% increase in the risk-free rate above its assumption would reduce fair value by 4%, and views the correction in bank stocks as having already priced in some of the pressure from bond yields. It recommends gradually accumulating banks whose prices have fallen more than average over the past month, such as KTB, which has a fair value of 48 baht, followed by KBANK, which has a fair value of 259 baht and a PBV that has dropped to 0.9 times, compared with the sector average of 1.1 times.

Impact on assets 5

Financials± Mixed · 3 stocks
Kasikornbank Public Company Limited
KBANK
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Asia Plus recommends gradually accumulating KBANK, noting its PBV has dropped to 0.9x versus the 1.1x sector average, with fair value 259 baht.

Others▲ · 2 stocks
％US Government Bond 2Y
US-2Y
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

The article notes the US 2-year bond yield remains elevated at 4.89%, driving volatility in bank stocks.

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