For the August personal consumption expenditures price index that the U.S. Commerce Department will release on the 30th, the median market forecast in a Reuters poll is a 0.4% rise month-on-month, with growth expected to accelerate from the previous month's 0.2% gain. The core index is seen rising 0.3%, personal consumption expenditures up 0.8%, and personal income up 0.4%. Bank of America estimates the PCE price index will rise 0.4% and the core index 0.3%, in line with consensus, and expects that because the Commerce Department is partly revising its calculation method starting this time, the year-on-year figures will be pushed down by about 0.2 percentage points for both the headline and core measures, to 3.6% and 3.2% respectively. RBC Economics forecasts a 0.3% rise in the PCE price index and a 0.2% rise in the core index, lower than consensus, noting that inflation in medical services is broadly mild but that higher airfares offset that effect, and stating that the revision to the calculation method will hold down the year-on-year figures. The forecasts, as of the 29th, are medians from 49 firms for PCE and 56 firms for core PCE, with projections of 0.4% for PCE and 0.3% for core PCE, both at 0.2% in July.
Bank of America CorpBank of America is cited only as one of the firms estimating the August PCE price index (0.4% headline, 0.3% core), an inflation data point with no company-specific impact.
