BofA's Hartnett Urges Investors to 'Buy Humiliation' as Treasury Returns Hit Century Low

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Summary · why it matters

Bank of America's Michael Hartnett is recommending investors "buy humiliation" and start adding bonds to their portfolios as long-run U.S. Treasury returns hit their lowest point in a century. In the latest Flow Show note, Hartnett said global asset allocators are heavily positioned in equities to ride the "final melt-up in US tech" while remaining very short on bonds, and argued that this historically poor fixed-income performance is a prime entry point, comparing it to lucrative buying opportunities that followed negative long-run returns in stocks in 1939, 1974 and 2009 and in commodities in 1933 and 2018. He acknowledged that a 100 to 200 basis point decline in bond yields would require a credit event or recession, but contended that bond portfolios are already nearing equity-like returns. The shift appears to be materializing, with weekly capital movement into government debt marking the largest inflow to U.S. Treasury funds since May 2026. Within corporate credit, U.S. investment-grade tech bond prices have dropped 9% over the past year, driving yields up from 4.5% to 6.2%, and Hartnett suggested long-term hyperscaler bonds from Oracle yielding 8.4%, Meta at 7.5% and Google at 6.9% may soon tempt buyers, reasoning that AI development is effectively backstopped by the U.S. government.

Impact on assets 4

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Bank of America Corp
BAC
± MixedCapitalrelevance

BofA's Hartnett is the author of the note recommending buying bonds, but the article reports no company-specific financial event for Bank of America itself.

Artificial Intelligence▲ · 1 stocks
Alphabet Inc Class C
GOOG
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Google's long-term hyperscaler bonds at 6.9% are cited as potentially tempting for bond buyers, a passing credit-market mention rather than a company development.

Spatial Computing / AR/VR▲ · 1 stocks
Meta Platforms Inc.
META
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Meta's long-term hyperscaler bonds at 7.5% are cited as potentially tempting for bond buyers, a passing credit-market mention rather than a company development.

Cloud & Digital Infrastructure▲ · 1 stocks
Oracle Corporation
ORCL
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Oracle's long-term hyperscaler bonds at 8.4% are cited as potentially tempting for bond buyers, a passing credit-market mention rather than a company development.

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