Brokers expect Q3/2026 banking sector core profit to grow 5% to 42.9 billion baht

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Bualuang Securities' Research team estimates that the combined core profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026 will be 42.9 billion baht, up 5% YoY and 7% QoQ, higher than the third-quarter 2026 GDP estimate of 2.0% YoY. Two main factors support this: lower provisioning and growing fee income. For provisioning, the sector's average rate is expected at 1.30%, down 17bps YoY and 2bps QoQ, while the average non-performing loan ratio to total loans is expected to edge up slightly from 2.98% at the end of June 2026 to 3.00% at the end of September 2026. The ratio of loan-loss reserves to non-performing loans is expected at 204.1%, flat QoQ. Total net fee income is expected at 40.3 billion baht, up 14% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven mainly by the wealth management business, whose combined net asset value of bank-owned asset management companies stood at 7.8 trillion baht at the end of August 2026, up 4% since the start of the quarter and up 11% YoY. Securities brokerage fee income is likely to grow significantly both YoY and QoQ, from securities trading value expected to rise 64% YoY and 34% QoQ in the third quarter of 2026. Counting total net profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026, it is expected at 55.2 billion baht, down 11% YoY and flat QoQ, due to lower average net interest margin and lower mark-to-market gains on financial instruments. Banks expected to post YoY core profit growth are KKP +73%, TISCO +23%, BBL +20%, KBANK +5% and TTB +4%, while KTB is expected to see core profit fall 11% YoY and SCB is expected to be flat YoY. For the fourth quarter of 2026, combined core profit is expected at 39.7 billion baht, up 10% YoY but down 8% QoQ, on higher operating expenses. For 2027, the banking sector's combined net profit is expected at 221 billion baht, up 1% YoY, supported by loan growth expected at 2% YoY and net fee income growth of 4% YoY, while average net interest margin has likely already passed its trough in the second quarter of 2026 after most loan and deposit rate adjustments were completed.

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Financials± Mixed · 5 stocks
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Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
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Bualuang expects BBL to post +20% YoY core profit growth in Q3/2026, driven by lower provisioning and higher fee income.

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