Summary · why it matters
A securities research note recommends buying MINT, assessing that the company's second-half 2026 earnings outlook remains positive, with growth expected both half-on-half and year-on-year, driven by the hotel business, where forward bookings are higher than a year earlier in the key markets of Europe, Thailand, the Maldives and Australia. Meanwhile, the food business in Thailand is beginning to recover, with same-store sales in July growing at a mid-to-high single digit rate year-on-year on the back of new product launches and a recovery in consumption. For the third quarter of 2026, profit is expected to soften quarter-on-quarter due to the seasonality of European hotels, but still grow year-on-year, before accelerating in the fourth quarter of 2026 on the high season in Thailand and the Maldives, as well as European bookings that remain above last year's levels. The impact from the Middle East is fairly limited, accounting for only 5% of hotel business profit.
Over the next three years, the focus will be on growth alongside debt reduction. MINT targets 15-20% growth in revenue and net profit and is pressing ahead with expanding both hotels and restaurants through an asset-light strategy to reduce capital expenditure and increase return on capital. It also targets lowering Net IBD/E to 0.75-0.85 times and Net Debt/EBITDA to below 4 times. On the hotel side, it aims to sign more than 50 management contracts in 2026, after securing 30 in the first half of 2026, and plans to open more than 11 new hotels across eight countries in the second half.
Minor Food is another growth driver, through franchise expansion and the addition of new brands. The acquisition of the global intellectual property rights to Bonchon in eight Asian markets immediately adds revenue from franchise fees and sauce sales. The company is also expanding stores through franchise agreements and partnerships with allies such as PTTOR, which targets opening 150 branches by 2030. This strategy lets MINT expand its network with less capital while keeping 2026 CAPEX at 15 billion baht, even including the Bonchon investment.
Meanwhile, the plan to set up a REIT has been postponed, as interest rates and volatility stemming from the Middle East have pushed up the yield investors demand. The company insists the delay is due to market sentiment and is unrelated to problems with the assets or the process. In the meantime, MINT will reduce debt through operating cash flow, asset rotation, repayment of high-cost debt and asset-light expansion, which will lower CAPEX needs and support a recovery in ROE. That said, the market is judged to have largely priced this in already, after the stock lagged the sector by about 11.5% year-to-date. The average target price from the IAA Consensus is 29.90 baht.
On the technical side, the stock pulled back in the short term to form support at the low of a 21-day candle and reversed upward with a series of candles forming higher lows, rising to stand above the 5-day and 13-day simple moving averages. This is a bullish candle signal within a large V-shaped pattern. A resistance zone sits at 22.40-22.50; a break and close above it would be a positive signal confirming the pattern. For investment advice: if you already hold the stock, hold or add on dips, with a chance to test resistance at 22.40-22.50 and 22.90. If you do not hold the stock, buy for the short term, focusing on holding support at 21.80 and 21.40, and it should not fall below that.
Minor International Public Company Limited