Nakorn Hataisattha, Head of Retail Investment Strategy Research and Economist at CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, said on the Stock News Market Focus programme on 28 September 2026 that the flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces this time differs from the great flood of 2011, because Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the Thai economy, making it a hugely important area for the country's economic activity. However, water levels in northern dams in 2026 stand at around 70%, compared with about 94% during the 2011 crisis, so the overall national risk still differs from that past event. Nakorn estimates the SET index could weaken below 1,600 points on selling driven by flood worries, but if the flooding eases within about four to five days, the market's correction could be a chance to buy certain stock groups. If the situation drags on beyond four to five days, the downside risk for the stock market will increase. Groups likely to come under pressure include property, stocks with factories in at-risk areas including electronic components such as KCE, insurers burdened by claims, and commercial banks on concerns about ECL provisioning. Retail stocks, meanwhile, may get a short-term positive sentiment boost from demand for consumer goods and home repair products. For high-dividend bank stocks such as TISCO and KKP, they could be an option if the situation eases quickly, with KKP also supported by the expansion of its investment platform business. CGSI believes that if the index falls below 1,600 points, the electronic components group is attractive to buy, especially DELTA, which still has a positive outlook from growing Thai exports of electronics and electrical appliances, and from the global investment cycle in AI, digital infrastructure, chips and memory, which continues to expand. If DELTA's share price falls sharply because of the floods, which are a one-off event, CGSI sees it as a chance to accumulate. Investors who do not want much volatility can consider HANA and KCE, and Nakorn said he likes HANA if the price falls to an attractive level.
KCE is flagged as pressured due to factories in flood at-risk areas, yet also named among electronics components stocks CGSI sees as attractive to buy.
OIC accelerates national catastrophe insurance payouts after flash floods and windstorms damage 227 households in Lamphun and Chiang Mai
The Office of the Insurance Commission, or OIC, together with 11 insurance companies, has begun paying compensation under the National Catastrophe Insurance policy to victims of flash floods and windstorms in Lamphun and Chiang Mai provinces, where damage totalled 227 households and one person died. Chuchat Pramulphon, Secretary-General of the OIC, along with Apakorn Panlert, Deputy Secretary-General for Insurance Business Supervision, held a teleconference with Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul at the Lamphun Provincial Government Center to monitor and expedite compensation payments from the incident on 5 October 2026. Lamphun province recorded preliminary damage of about 225 households in Pa Phlu subdistrict, Ban Hong district, while Chiang Mai province saw windstorm damage to 2 households and one death from being swept away by floodwaters, the first victim to qualify for death coverage under the policy's conditions. The incident meets the coverage conditions of the National Catastrophe Insurance policy under the Catastrophe Insurance for the People programme, which began providing coverage to more than 30 million households nationwide on 1 October 2026. The OIC has been instructed to integrate its efforts with the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation and the insurance industry to complete compensation payments within 15 days of receiving complete documentation. Under the coverage terms for catastrophes including floods, windstorms and earthquakes, the maximum coverage for structures is 100,000 baht per household, with flood cases receiving an immediate preliminary payout of 10,000 baht, while windstorm and earthquake cases receive 5,000 baht, and additional damage is assessed and paid according to actual losses up to the net limit. Deaths from catastrophes are covered up to 2 million baht, and total permanent disability up to 200,000 baht. Dr. Somporn Suebthawilkul, President of the Thai General Insurance Association, said the association has set up an ad hoc claims management committee and put in place a reporting system and claims payment process for both preliminary and additional damage. Affected members of the public can report damage via the website www.thaiNATCAT.org, the LINE Official Account @ThaiNATCAT, the customer service centre at 02-012-5555, and reporting points in affected areas, or inquire about rights and coverage through the OIC hotline 1186 and the LINE Official Account @OICCONNECT.
Intact Financial estimates Q3 catastrophe losses of about $660 million
Intact Financial Corporation announced an estimated $660 million in pre-tax catastrophe losses for the third quarter of 2026, net of reinsurance, equal to $2.76 per diluted share after tax. The total breaks down into $615 million in Canada, $38 million in the UK and Ireland, and $7 million in the US, while by line of business it comprises $390 million in Personal property, $173 million in Commercial lines, and $52 million in Personal auto. Chief Executive Officer Charles Brindamour said the severe weather events of recent months brought the company's teams, supply chain and restoration network together to help customers recover, and that at an industry level the events reinforce firm market conditions. Chief Financial Officer Ken Anderson said catastrophe losses over the past 12 months totaled $1.29 billion, modestly above the company's annual guidance of $1.20 billion, while the Intact platform continues to demonstrate resilience and strength. The losses in the most impacted lines, Personal property and Commercial lines in Canada, were driven by severe weather including storms causing flooding, water and wind damage across several regions, as well as wildfires in British Columbia.
Definity Estimates $190 Million in Q3 2026 Catastrophe Losses
Definity Financial Corporation announced that catastrophe losses in the third quarter of 2026 will reduce underwriting income by approximately $190 million net of reinsurance recoveries, or $1.15 per common share net of taxes and reinsurance. The estimate updates and extends the company's September 3, 2026 preliminary estimate of losses from July and August events. Within the $190 million total, personal property accounts for $136 million, commercial insurance for $37 million, and personal auto for $17 million. The losses stem from severe rainstorms and flooding in Ontario and Alberta and wildfires in British Columbia in July and August, plus a large storm system that brought damaging winds, hail and flooding to southern Ontario in early September. President and CEO Rowan Saunders said severe weather-related events continued into September and impacted communities across the country, and that Definity remains focused on supporting customers through its catastrophe response capabilities.
HCI Group Poised to Extend Earnings Beat Streak on Strong ESP
HCI Group is positioned to beat consensus earnings estimates again, according to Zacks Investment Research, which cites the insurer's positive Earnings ESP of +35.40% alongside its Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The property and casualty insurance holding company has topped estimates by 9.46% on average over the last two quarters. In the most recent quarter, HCI Group was expected to post earnings of $4.97 per share but reported $5.6 per share, a surprise of 12.68%. The prior quarter brought a consensus estimate of $5.13 per share against actual earnings of $5.45 per share, a surprise of 6.24%. Zacks notes that stocks combining a positive Earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time.
AFG Specialty Focus Seen Driving Above-Market Premium Growth
American Financial Group's specialty-focused portfolio is positioned to keep premium growth above the broader P&C market, though the source of that outperformance is shifting from pricing toward new business, exposure growth and market-share gains. In the second quarter of 2026, AFG's Specialty P&C net written premiums rose 6% year over year, against a broader U.S. P&C market where premium growth has flattened, with gains across all three of its Specialty P&C groups. Within that mix, Property & Transportation net written premiums rose 5%, Specialty Casualty increased 6%, and Specialty Financial grew 10%, the last achieved even as renewal pricing declined by less than 1%. The company faces a softening backdrop: Marsh reported U.S. commercial insurance rates declined 2% in second-quarter 2026, and Swiss Re expects U.S. P&C premium growth to slow to around 3% in 2026. AFG shares have gained 2% year to date, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 moved up 19.4% over the past 60 days, while fourth-quarter 2026 EPS moved down 0.3% and full-year 2026 and 2027 EPS moved up 8.1% and 0.2%, respectively.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Property/Casualty & Reinsurance Underwriting Demand
AFG · Demand · Positive AFG's Specialty P&C net written premiums rose 6% YoY, above the flat broader P&C market, driven by new business, exposure growth and market-share gains.
Palomar Holdings Posts $314.4 Million Q2 Revenue, Up 54.7% Year on Year
Palomar Holdings reported second-quarter revenues of $314.4 million, up 54.7% year on year and 5% above analysts' expectations, as the specialty insurer delivered its 15th consecutive earnings beat. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Mac Armstrong said gross written premium rose 27% year over year, adjusted net income grew 31%, adjusted earnings per share grew 34%, the adjusted combined ratio was 77% and adjusted return on equity was 26%, and the company raised its full-year adjusted net income guidance for the third time. The quarter included the launch of PLMR.Farm, Palomar's crop policy administration system, though the company missed analysts' book value per share estimates. Palomar shares are down 9.1% since reporting and trade at $123.77. Across the 31 property and casualty insurance stocks tracked, group revenues beat consensus by 2.3% and next-quarter revenue guidance came in 0.9% above estimates, while share prices have fallen 8.9% on average since the latest results.
PLMR · Capital · Positive Q2 revenue of $314.4M beat consensus by 5%, 15th straight earnings beat, adjusted EPS +34%, and raised full-year guidance for the third time.
PLMR · Demand · Positive Gross written premium rose 27% year over year, indicating strong customer demand for its specialty insurance policies.