China Chip Stocks Fall on Report Beijing May Allow Nvidia Sales

Qualcomm and Arm Holdings began a new trial on Monday, with Qualcomm claiming Arm withheld chip testing tools required under their contract. Qualcomm also alleges Arm leaked information to the media about its 2024 threat to cancel a critical license agreement, which hurt negotiations for a chip deal between Qualcomm and Meta Platforms. In the lawsuit filed in US federal court in Delaware, Qualcomm is seeking to stop paying royalties to Arm for up to five years, an amount that could be worth billions of dollars. Judge Maryellen Noreika is considering whether to remove the five-year royalty hold provision from the contract; if removed, Qualcomm would only be able to seek a smaller amount in damages. Arm, owned by Japan's SoftBank Group, has denied breaking the contract and argued it did not harm Qualcomm's chip deals, which it called speculative, and countered that Qualcomm cannot seek damages for the leaked termination letter because Qualcomm leaked confidential details of antitrust investigations into Arm to the media. The five-day jury trial represents another chapter in the difficult relationship between the two companies.

Goldman Sachs named Applied Materials, Seagate and Microchip as tactical ideas heading into third-quarter earnings, saying it sees a more constructive trading setup for semiconductor stocks after a sector pullback it attributed to significant de-risking. Analysts led by James Schneider said the sector has fallen sharply over the past two months, with the SOX index down 11% against a 4% gain for the S&P 500, in stark contrast to the 2Q setup when the bank signaled a more cautious tactical outlook ahead of results. Goldman expects Applied Materials to raise its margin targets and give a robust growth outlook at SEMICON West on October 13, ahead of mid-November earnings, with a strong report driven by DRAM and advanced logic and management speaking to a wafer fab equipment market growing toward $300 billion over time, though the stock rallied about 12% in the past week so expectations are elevated. For Seagate, Goldman forecasts a strong quarter on positive hard disk drive pricing and a supportive demand environment, projecting about 2% revenue upside and guidance roughly 3% above the Street, citing prudent supply strategy and advanced HAMR progress relative to competitors. Goldman also expects broad strength across end markets for Microchip, led by datacenter and aerospace and defense, with about 1% revenue upside and gross margin recovering to roughly 66% by the end of 2026, and its fiscal 2027 earnings estimate about 3% above consensus. The bank flagged downside risk tactically for Qualcomm, KLA and Western Digital, all rated Neutral, saying Qualcomm may be ahead of itself given strong expectations tied to agentic AI, KLA's results may lag peers as spending skews toward DRAM, and Western Digital should underperform Seagate.