CoStar Group's new forecast predicts Canada's multifamily vacancy rate will begin trending down in the second half of 2027, as improving absorption outpaces a moderating pace of new deliveries. The national vacancy rate has risen from barely 2% in 2022 to 4.75% today, as net deliveries averaging 8,000 units per quarter since 2023—roughly double the pre-pandemic pace—have outpaced absorption despite strong population growth. However, this national figure masks two distinct realities: the vacancy rate for low-end affordable units sits at just 3%, while the rate for higher-end units has jumped from about 7% in 2022 to roughly 15% today, since most new units have skewed toward the high end. CoStar's Chief Economist for Canada, Mario Lefebvre, noted that the shortage is specifically a shortage of affordable homes, not luxury units. The forecast calls for net absorption to begin rising at the end of 2026, one quarter earlier than previously expected, driven by pent-up demand and declining rent, though risks remain tilted to the downside due to trade and tariff uncertainty, higher fuel costs, and a declining population.
CoStar Group IncCoStar's forecast predicts improving multifamily absorption, indicating stronger demand for its real estate data services.
