Summary · why it matters
GCAP GOLD, or G Capital Company Limited, stated that the US central bank meeting on September 15–16 will be a key factor determining the next direction of gold prices, with investors needing to watch the Dot Plot and the Fed Chair's statement especially closely. Ms. Areerat Murachai, Chief Analyst at GCAP GOLD, revealed that although the market has already priced in much of the chance of a rate hike, if the Fed raises rates as expected without signalling further increases, gold prices have room to recover, because the market has already reflected that risk in prices. Meanwhile, if the Dot Plot indicates the Fed still leaves the door open to another rate hike, especially at the December meeting, that could push US Treasury yields and the dollar higher, which would in turn pressure gold prices in the short term. On inflation, the August Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% from the previous month and Core CPI rose 0.3%, reflecting pressures the Fed must be cautious about. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East after a drone attack on the East–West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia forced a temporary halt to operations, along with reports of ships being attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, have added to concerns over oil supply and the inflation outlook. GCAP GOLD's analysis team estimates this week's gold price range at $4,200–$4,435, advising investors to watch the key support level around $4,280, or roughly 67,000 baht for Thai gold. If it holds and builds a base above that level, there is room to recover and test the target around $4,400, or roughly 68,500 baht for Thai gold. But if it clearly breaks below the $4,280 support, they recommend waiting to assess a new base around $4,225–$4,200, or roughly 65,900 baht for Thai gold, to reduce risk from volatility.
G Capital Public Company Limited