GULF Backs PDP 2026 Electricity Liberalization, Recommends Expanding Direct PPA

Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited hosted the Maybank Exclusive Meeting with the Minister of Energy, inviting Mr. Ekkanat Promphan, Minister of Energy, to a special stage for institutional investors to outline the direction of Thailand's energy policy under the principles of clean energy, supply security, and fair prices. One of the key mechanisms is the national Power Development Plan, or PDP 2026, which aims to raise the share of renewable energy to approximately 50% in the first 10 years and move higher over the long term, while opening the door to energy storage systems and Smart Grid. Meanwhile, the opening of a direct clean electricity trading market, or Direct PPA, will help the industrial sector, especially Data Centers, access renewable energy directly and serve as an important tool for building competitiveness under increasingly stringent environmental requirements worldwide. On the power generation sector, the Minister stated that Independent Power Producers, or IPP, remain an important component of Thailand's power system for security, while new investment opportunities will gradually shift toward renewable energy, energy storage systems, and infrastructure supporting the transition. As for petroleum exploration and production, the government continues to emphasize increasing domestic energy sources and diversifying supply sources to reduce risks from Spot LNG volatility, including coordinating cooperation with neighboring countries in Myanmar and other areas, and promoting the use of biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel to reduce dependence on crude oil imports. From these policy directions, Maybank highlights 4 investment themes to watch: renewable energy, Energy Storage and Smart Grid; Direct PPA with Data Center and Digital Infrastructure; Energy Security with E&P and Natural Gas; and finally IPP and existing power plants. Investors should weigh the quality of assets, the duration of power purchase agreements, cash flow, and the ability to adjust portfolios toward new forms of energy business.

Shell PLC raised its third-quarter integrated gas production forecast to 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from its previous guidance of 570,000 to 630,000 boepd. The British energy major produced 631,000 boepd in the second quarter, partly reflecting the acquisition of ARC Resources. Shell also forecast an indicative refining margin of $42 a barrel for the quarter, up sharply from $24 a barrel in the second quarter, while its indicative chemicals margin is expected to fall to $208 a tonne from $270 a tonne. The company warned that weaker chemicals margins and higher cash outflows could weigh on its results. Shell is due to report third-quarter results on Oct. 29.

Shell said Wednesday it expects about $300M in third-quarter upstream exploration well write-offs, alongside higher integrated gas production and refining margins. Upstream production is forecast at 1.735 million to 1.835 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, while integrated gas production is expected to rise to 740,000-780,000 boe/d and LNG liquefaction volumes are forecast at 7.2-7.6 million tonnes. In the second quarter, the European oil and gas major produced 631,000 boed, compared with over 900,000 boed before the US and Israel started a war on Iran in February. Shell's indicative refining margin is expected to rise to $42 a barrel in Q3'26 from $24 a barrel in Q2'26, with Trading & Optimisation expected to remain in line with the previous quarter. The update follows CEO Wael Sawan's Tuesday remark that oil flows from the Middle East have rebounded to roughly 80% of pre-war volumes, and last month's agreement to farm into two BP offshore exploration projects, taking a 30% interest in BP's Conifer prospect in the U.S. Gulf and a 50% stake in the Tupinamba block in Brazil's Santos Basin, with financial terms not disclosed.

Dao Securities (Thailand) said the PDP2026 draft is likely to open the way for existing power plants to extend their power purchase agreements, or PPAs, by another 7 years, to bridge the transition period between the gradual expiry of existing plants and the entry of new capacity and renewable energy. There are concerns that new power plants may not be built and connected to the grid in time to meet rising electricity demand, particularly from data centers. Meanwhile, the Energy Policy and Planning Office said it will not extend PPAs for every plant, but will consider only projects essential to system stability, such as power plants in the EEC area. GPSC stands to benefit from the 713MW Glow IPP, while BGRIM has proposed extending PPAs for a total of 22 IPP-SPP projects with combined capacity of about 3,000MW. BANPU has the 1,434MW BLCP plant, whose agreements will gradually expire in 2032, while RATCH may benefit from gas-fired IPP plants that meet the criteria. Dao's research team has a positive view on the power plant sector, as PPA extensions will let operators keep using existing plants and infrastructure without large investments in new projects, while reducing risks from PPA expiries and enhancing the value of existing assets over the long term. The research team sees upside for GPSC and BGRIM from multiple projects that may win extensions, and therefore maintains buy ratings, with a target price of 60.00 baht for GPSC and 25.00 baht for BGRIM.

Bloom Energy bought a 158,000-square-foot building in Fremont to expand production, almost matching its existing 164,000-square-foot plant there, and separately stands as a natural contender for a 20-year Ameren Missouri energy plan calling for 500 MW of natural-gas fuel cells by 2030, though Ameren has not named a supplier. The news lifted Bloom shares as much as 15% in a single session, a day after a 9% drop in a broader AI selloff, sending the stock to a three-month high. Bloom's revenue topped $1 billion for the first time last quarter, up 166% from a year earlier, and the company expects sales to roughly double this year while working to double yearly production capacity at Fremont from about 1 GW to 2 GW by the end of 2026. Each extra gigawatt costs about $100 million to $150 million, so going from 2 GW to 5 GW would cost roughly $300 million to $450 million, well within reach of Bloom's $2.72 billion in cash. The stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of about 135 times, with earnings forecast to skyrocket 256% this year, 82% in 2027, 58% in 2028, and 33% in 2029, and hedge funds holding Bloom rose from 91 in Q1 to 116 in Q2 while their stakes more than doubled from $4.5 billion to $10.8 billion.